A big question mark has arisen over the future of the INDIA alliance following the massive defeat of the Congress in the Assembly polls to three States, which has also served as big boost for the BJP, ahead of the 2024 Parliamentary elections.
The problem with the Congress, which is the largest party in this bloc, is that if it fares badly in one to one contests against the Saffron Brigade in the nearly 200 seats, the efforts of all others shall not be sufficient to oust the ruling dispensation from power.
There are many in the grand old party who are convinced that the defeats in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh were on account of EVM tampering, but have been unable to provide any evidence of it. IF indeed it is true, then this is what the top agenda of the alliance should be since any tampering would affect not only the Congress but also all other partners. Simultaneously, the alliance would have to devise a strategy where the common people do not perceive them to be bad losers but the victims of a supposed stolen election.
This is an extremely difficult task, given that the Congress in particular has no organization left and is completely dependent on the Gandhis to bring them back to power. Sadly, for the party, the Gandhis do not have the Midas touch and are struggling themselves to remain relevant. A survey which is being widely discussed in some quarters gives the Congress between 37 to 43 seats in the Lok Sabha elections, post the inauguration of the Ram Temple. However, the party has to put its act together and assert itself electorally.
At this juncture, the focus of the INDIA partners is on the breach of Parliament security, which of course is the most serious issue currently. Nevertheless, it does not mean that the Alliance should shift the focus from other matters such as alleged EVM hacking, the economic points and things that touch the common people. The Congress has to once again take a decision on how to reinvent itself against the BJP and also how to deal with the alliance partners, who often seem adversarial in their approach.
Mallikarjun Kharge, the Congress president has conducted himself with a lot of restraint but needs to somehow ensure that the Gandhis do not cross redlines while talking about the current situation, and their speeches are well within the prescribed limits. There are many who are convinced that the Congress remains a greater enemy for the alliance partners than the BJP, against whom they have formed this front.
In all the states where regional parties are powerful, the Congress has been reduced to the sidelines. In Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP has 72 out of 80 seats, the Congress seems to be nowhere and it is unlikely that its position would improve.
There are analysts who have predicted that the Congress could even lose its Rae Bareilly seat from where Sonia Gandhi, is the MP. There are also questions whether she would be contesting the elections at all. Out of the alliance partners, Mamata Banerjee, seems to be the strongest so far as the political turf is concerned. There has to be a realistic assessment of the ground situation before any other issues get discussed. The INDIA bloc, as stated earlier, faces the biggest threat from within, Nitish Kumar, Sharad Pawar and Arvind Kejriwal, can rock the boat at any time and their political conduct needs to be carefully scrutinized. The question to Kejriwal is that where was the need to contest the recent Assembly polls, where virtually all the AAP candidates not only lost, but forfeited deposits. Statistics are not available but if the presence of AAP nominees, helped the BJP in any manner, the rest of the alliance partners need to re-assess its role for Lok Sabha. Sharad Pawar and Nitish Kumar, similarly do not have anything left on the ground. Pawar will be dependent on the Congress and the Shiv Sena (Uddhav) to get him some seats. Nitish’s dependence on the RJD and Lalu Prasad Yadav would be complete. The short point is that those who are most vocal at the meetings of the alliance, must first look into their own reality before criticizing others.
The Congress is the only party that can knock out the BJP but it has to strengthen its organization, for which there is no time left before 2024. Unless and until, the Congress vote bank of Brahmins, Dalits and Muslims comes back, there is very little future. This obsession with OBC politics is unnecessary and the need of the hour is to have a pragmatic approach. Kharge has time and again stated that the Congress was not hankering for the top position in 2024.
Rahul Gandhi should also declare that he was not in the queue for prime ministership.. This would help. If the Congress gets the numbers, it would automatically be in the driving seat and even if there is no PM from that party, it would play a decisive role in determining who such an individual would be. Mamata as per an objective assessment seems to be best placed, to spearhead the alliance.
She has complete control over her State and there are functionaries within the RSS, who feel that she should not be targeted by the BJP. Narendra Modi and Amit Shah are pastmasters at their game. To defeat them on their own turf shall never be easy. Therefore, the narrative has to be more focused and sharp, for an election which has already been perceived to be lost. The onus is on the INDIA partners to take up this challenge.