The Russian-Ukrainian war (this is the name it will go down in history) and from the fears that torment us at home every minute, I want to analyse the situation from a bird’s eye view, so to speak.
Any society in its proximity to power and influence on power is always like a pyramid. But in democracies, it is a gentle pyramid, with an acute angle of the base and a blunt angle of the top, and in personalistic autocracies (absolute monarchies, tyrannies)— with a very sharp angle of the top and with base angles only slightly short of 90 degrees. Our society is a typical example of such an ascended autocratic pyramid.
Its “deep people” are about 80%. It’s a pyramid base. These are usually people living poorly or just poorly, they prefer TV to get a picture of the world to the Internet, they either did not travel abroad at all or were content with the protected beaches of Egypt, Turkey, Tunisia, and Hainan. They are spontaneous anti-Americanists, although they have never been to America. This anti-Americanism is a consequence of a complex of envy in conditions of low enlightenment. Often in their heads the picture of the world is wrapped in conspiracy theory, pseudo-history and other strange ideas. They are passive and now, although dissatisfied with life, but obedient to the authorities.
These people in real circumstances mostly (about 70%) support Putin’s war in Ukraine, believe in bloodthirsty anti-Russian “Banderites” and the evil West, which is opposed by Russia. But all this is without fanaticism. They will prefer not to send their children to war and will wish to avoid the hardships of war. There are very few fans among them. Those who go to war as volunteers will do so rather from poverty and despair because of an undeveloped life.
The second level of the pyramid is 18-19%. These are intelligent cultural people who use the Internet widely, go abroad, and know the world well. Many of them have independent sources of income. Others, on the contrary, work in state corporations, in bureaucracy, serve the authorities, but are not allowed to do it themselves. These people are often, but not always, wealthy. They may even have small real estate in Latvia or Bulgaria, or even an apartment in Lazurka. Among these people, a clear understanding of the world picture prevails, many of them have strong moral principles and value freedom. Others, on the contrary, sell their talent to the authorities and, in exchange for silence, receive good salaries at universities, bureaucracy and government business. Among this group, about 70% do not approve of the current war, in one way or another publicly declare it. A considerable number of representatives of this group, shocked by recent events, are now changing their loyalty to the authorities to a moral confrontation with it, retiring from the civil service, state media, etc. But not all loyalists do so. An example of the position of the protest majority in this group is actress Chulpan Khamatova, a loyal minority, Gergiev.
Finally, the top of the pyramid, its tip— 1-2% of the population— are the main beneficiaries of the current Russian system. These people are fully loyal to the authorities, also educated and fully understandable, who no longer have apartments, but villas in the West, who have large deposits in foreign banks (from Switzerland to the UAE), participating in international business. These are officials of the highest rank, heads of state corporations, so-called deputies of the Duma and Federation Council, governors, multi-star generals of the army, FSB, GRU. They sold their freedom to Putin and in exchange received a rich and free life. They are unconditional executors of his will, but not for ideological, but for completely selfish reasons. Ideological ones, like Dugin or Vaino, are also among them, but there are few of them. And, most importantly, their ideas are different and they try to realise them through “access to the body”.
Now this “elite” group is terrorised and frustrated. The main word in the offices of the Kremlin, Lubyanka and Staraya Square now is “he deceived us”. Throughout their sweet life, Putin nullified the Russian-Ukrainian war, making their money and their villas in the best places in the world inaccessible to them, and loyalty demands even more despite the fact that the complicity in this war of many of them by name makes war criminals and objects of attention of the Hague Tribunal. They didn’t agree with Putin like that. In addition, the ghost of the Great Terror loomed before them if the current regime rejected by the whole world continued its aggression. And the prospect of turning into nuclear ashes is in the limit. A completely uninteresting prospect for owners of ocean yachts, Rolls-Royce and Lamborghini collections, masterpieces of painting and cosy villas among the vineyards of Tuscany.
These people at one point ceased to be loyal to Putin. Why would they lose all their gains, yes, in addition, and life itself? And without them, Putin is no longer a great tyrant, but just an old man hiding in a bunker. Even the notorious red button, which was so cleverly depicted in Charlie Ebdo, he can now press something, but no one will do his will. A few fanatics don’t count. They’re just isolated, just like the tyrant himself, who made a mistake.
Putin cannot turn to the next strata, which is either against him or loyal for the same reason as the “elite” and will retreat from him along with the elite.
And Putin will not be able to address the indigenous people. He is anything but a people’s leader. And these people, even sympathising with him, will not follow him. He has long been accustomed to passivity and one-on-one survival with a TV, not to the people’s revolution.
If Putin had won the war in Ukraine in two days, and the West had not imposed crushing sanctions, he would have maintained loyalty and even the mystical delight of the elite, like Hitler in 1939-41, and full support for the people. The intelligentsia would be split and isolated.
But Putin lost the war, did not carry out a blitzkrieg, tied up Ukrainian chernozems in the mud of March. The sanctions turned out to be really crushing, as old President Biden promised.
And Putin was left alone. This is not Iran, where the Ayatollah regime was established as a result of the people’s religious revolution (as well as the Bolshevik regime in Russia in 1917-22), not North Korea, where the popular anti-colonial war also developed into despotism. Both there and there, the revolution led to a complete change of elite. Russia has been ruled for thirty years by a boring, hopeless kleptocracy, Bolshevik by genesis, and accepted the people crushed by Bolshevism.
Putin nullified the kleptocracy, he will no longer be able to be its leader, he was disgraced before the whole world and for humanity became the most dangerous war criminal with signs of a maniac. It will be handed over in the coming days. Not he, but the new leader will have to return the “beautiful life” to the point of the pyramid, restore relations with the West, achieve the unblocking of accounts in foreign banks, removing the sequestration from their property. It should be a man not tarnished in current crimes, ideally loudly. Who condemned them, but originated from their environment, a person with whom you can agree.
Therefore, we are not threatened by new Stalinism, nor Iranian path, nor North Korean. The masses of Russia are silent, there will be no people’s revolution. And there will be, very, very soon, an apex intra-elite coup, such as the removal of Khrushchev in 1964, or the death of Emperor Paul on the night of March 11-12, 1801, or Stalin’s strange death in March 1953. But, in order to restore relations with the West, this coup will take place on the basis of the middle, active stratum, with its moral support, with the restoration of democracy and civil liberties.
And we can expect this in the coming days, a lot in the coming weeks. I remain an optimist.
Andrey Zubov is a former Professor of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations. The article has been translated from Russian by John Dobson.