Visuals of Russia’s blitzkrieg invasion of Ukraine tell a heartbreaking tale. It’s bewildering. How can a totalitarian leader of a big country punish a relatively smaller and weaker country with all its might in total disregard to international laws, innocent lives, properties, human suffering, and environmental degradation? And the whole world is just watching impotently as a spectator with no game plan to stop this madness before it’s too late! Isn’t it the Draupadi moment for the world leaders? In Mahabharat, the mighty Pandavas sat, with their heads bent, while their wife, Draupadi, was being disrobed in the court by the Kauravas. They did nothing to stop that shameful act. Today, Putin, Russian President for 20 years, is bent upon bombing an independent and sovereign nation into submission. Regrettably, the leaders of the free world— the US, G-7, and NATO— can do nothing against him except announcing a slew of economic sanctions, making appeals, and getting resolutions moved in the UNSC, UNGA and Human Rights Council. Expectedly, Putin dismisses them disdainfully by putting the nuclear arsenals at high alert. He retorts with a chilling message: don’t mess with me or you will witness World War III!
Is this the new world order? Is this the new normal? Isn’t it the end of Pax America? What’s the message of the Ukranian crisis? Won’t other totalitarian leaders follow in Putin’s footsteps? Who will stop Xi Xinping if he does a Putin act in his neighbourhood? How long can India sustain the tight rope walk between the US and Russia?
Russia’s security concerns were and are legitimate. The US, the EU and NATO have rejected his concerns over the years callously. NATO’s eastward expansion has been reckless; granting NATO membership to more than 14 countries, too close for comfort to Russia, and being vocal about some more countries including Ukraine and Finland getting admitted to NATO was provocative and insensitive to Russia. Putin’s apprehensions that Ukraine could be used by NATO as a springboard to mount attacks on Russia should have been taken seriously.
Thus, both the US and its NATO allies bear some responsibility for the current Ukrainian crises. What Putin had done in Georgia and Crimea should have alerted them that he might resort to extreme steps again if the NATO expansion continued unabated.
But nothing that the US and NATO have done or threatened to do gave Putin a licence to invade Ukraine in the manner he has done. No international law supports his invasion. He just can’t trample on the territorial integrity and sovereignty of a UN member. Yes, his insane attacks on hospitals, schools and power plants resulting in loss of civilian lives, disruption of normal lives of millions of ordinary people and huge humanitarian crises do amount to war crimes. But who will bell the cat?
He can remind the US of what they did in Iraq: invaded it on false charges of possession of WMDs, destroyed the entire country with carpet bombing, toppled Saddam Hussain, and pushed the country backward by fifty years which, instead of democracy, gave birth to the IS.
Col Gaddafi of Libya didn’t attack any NATO member. But the NATO bombed Libya in the name of intervention to save human lives. Qaddafi’s despotic rule ended but was replaced by anarchy and devil-dance of militias with guns instead of democracy.
Putin wasn’t blind; he sensed he could do an American or NATO act of his own in a country of his choosing; the world will merely watch. He intervened in Syria and spared Bashar Assad of meeting the fate of Saddam Hussian or Gaddafi. He saw with glee, the humiliating exit of the US from Afghanistan after 20 years without defeating the Taliban. The gradual decline of the US as a superpower and war fatigue of the American people wasn’t lost on him. Repeated declarations by Biden and NATO that they won’t put boots on the ground nor create a no-flying zone around Ukraine virtually gave Putin a free hand to invade Ukraine.
Biden has often claimed that Russia and China are America’s Strategic Rivals. But given the size of her economy and its burgeoning global political, economic, and military clout, and its focus on mastering new technologies, China was perceived as a greater threat. That explains an enhanced interest in the Indo-Pacific and QUAD. Isn’t AUKUS aimed at countering China? But the Ukraine crisis has brought to the fore the fact that an economically weak Russia armed with the largest nuclear weapons remains a bigger threat than China. Ironically, mounting sanctions are bringing the Russian bear and the Chinese dragon even closer.
Given India’s heavy dependence on Russian defence supplies, ongoing cooperation in the field of nuclear energy and defence production, inventory for future imports, and history of Russian support in the UN, taking an anti-Russian stand isn’t an option for it. The need to evacuate all Indians from Ukraine reinforces this vulnerability.
India–US relations have been transformed beyond recognition; USA is currently India’s largest trading partner, largest investor and largest source of super technologies and a significant strategic partner for addressing global commons.
To serve her national interests, scrupulously avoiding antagonizing either of the two has been raison d’être of India’s abstentions. But for how long shouldn’t India call a spade a spade and demand Russian withdrawal from Ukraine? Didn’t we demand Iraqi withdrawal from Kuwait?
We attended the summit of democracies three months back. Isn’t it strange that the largest democracy and the oldest democracy aren’t on the same page today?
The whole world demands adherence to international laws and resolution of disputes peacefully in the indo-pacific region. Why should China heed when we don’t flag that principle in Ukraine?
Massive Economic sanctions imposed on Russia will cumulatively hurt her badly and might even trigger a domestic political challenge to Putin, but over a period. By then, Ukraine and Zelensky could be consigned to history!
To restore International laws, end the humanitarian crises, and save the world of avoidable economic costs, Putin must be stopped.
Surendra Kumar is a former ambassador of India.
Putin wasn’t blind; he sensed he could do an American or NATO act of his own in a country of his choosing; the world will merely watch. He intervened in Syria and spared Bashar Assad of meeting the fate of Saddam Hussian or Gaddafi. He saw with glee, the humiliating exit of the US from Afghanistan after 20 years without defeating the Taliban.