Exit polls show a wide lead for opposition leader Friedrich Merz’s conservative CDU/CSU coalition in Germany’s federal election and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) set to deliver its best result since World War II.
As per estimates by ARD and ZDF public television, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s center-left Social Democrats (SPD) are poised for their worst postwar performance, likely to finish third with about 16%. Merz’s conservatives gained at least 28.5%, and the AfD almost doubled its share to about 19.5%, driven by fears of immigration and security in the wake of recent fatal attacks by asylum seekers.
Merz, the longtime rival of ex-Chancellor Angela Merkel, has committed to a hardline approach towards irregular immigration, in hopes of recapturing votes from the AfD. Even with its upsurge, the far-right party is still isolated, as mainstream parties have committed to keeping a “firewall” to keep it out of power.
The destiny of the smaller parties will be instrumental in determining the makeup of the next government. The business-friendly Free Democrats (FDP), its most likely conservative partner, is hovering on the 5% mark that will get it into parliament. The far-left Die Linke is expected to cross at least 8.5%, while the emerging left-wing conservative BSW is perched on the 5% line.
The election coincides with a critical time for Germany, where changing US-Europe relations in the wake of Donald Trump’s presidency are spurring fears of the future of NATO and economic stability. Merz has pledged to establish leadership for Germany in Europe in turbulent times.
The turnout was at 52% by early afternoon, not including postal votes. Election officials are set to start counting mail votes, which would affect the eventual outcome once voting closes.
