Pope Francis has been hospitalized for 14 days due to double pneumonia, marking his longest hospital stay as pontiff. While the Vatican reports slight improvements, medical experts caution that his prognosis remains uncertain. Speculation is mounting over three possible scenarios regarding his future: recovery, resignation, or death.

1. Recovery: Can Pope Francis Resume His Duties?

At 88 years old, Pope Francis has faced multiple health challenges, yet he is known for his resilience. While he appears to be recovering, doctors suggest he is still not out of danger.

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  • Medical experts believe that double pneumonia in elderly patients could require a minimum three-week hospitalization.
  • If he recovers, the Pope may need a transition period, adjusting to a slower schedule.
  • His ability to lead key Catholic events, such as the Easter celebrations in April and the 2025 Jubilee, remains uncertain.
  • There are also doubts about whether he will be fit to travel, especially with a potential trip to Turkey in May.

2. Death: The Vatican’s Contingency Plan

If Pope Francis passes away, the Catholic Church follows a well-defined process:

  • Cardinal Camerlengo, currently Kevin Farrell, will manage Church affairs until a new pope is elected.
  • The pope’s funeral will be held in St. Peter’s Basilica, following tradition. However, Francis has requested a simplified funeral and wishes to be buried in the Basilica of St. Mary Major, rather than the Vatican grottos.
  • A new pope will be elected in a conclave, where 138 cardinals under 80 years old will cast votes. The conclave typically begins 15-20 days after the pope’s passing.

3. Resignation: Will Pope Francis Step Down?

Rumors of Pope Francis’ potential resignation have circulated for years but have intensified due to his health crisis.

  • Experts suggest that if he survives, he may continue leading the Church until the end of the 2025 Jubilee before considering resignation at age 89.
  • A key sign of his intent could be the recent consistory (a meeting of cardinals), a format previously used by Pope Benedict XVI to announce his historic resignation in 2013.
  • However, Francis has warned against frequent papal resignations, stating that it should not “become a fashion.”

What Lies Ahead for the Catholic Church?

While Pope Francis continues to work from the hospital, the Vatican remains on high alert. His future—whether he recovers, resigns, or passes away—will significantly shape the leadership of the 1.4 billion Catholics worldwide.