Paris: French Prime Minister François Bayrou has survived a no-confidence vote in parliament, securing a temporary reprieve after pushing a cost-cutting budget through using a controversial constitutional provision. Despite this victory, political instability looms as fresh elections remain a possibility.

Bayrou’s Use of Article 49.3 to Pass Budget

On Monday, Bayrou invoked Article 49.3 of the French constitution to bypass a parliamentary vote and push through a controversial budget plan. The move prompted opposition parties, particularly the hard-left France Unbowed (LFI), to file a no-confidence motion against the government.

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However, key opposition parties—the Socialists and the far-right National Rally (RN)—chose not to support the motion, preventing the necessary 289 votes needed to unseat the government.

Political Reactions and Divided Opposition

The survival of Bayrou’s government marks a significant moment for President Emmanuel Macron, who appointed him in December to restore political stability. However, many analysts believe this is just a temporary victory, with potential challenges ahead:

  • Jordan Bardella, head of the far-right RN, warned against long-term instability but expressed support for elections in June 2025.
  • Socialist leader Olivier Faure opposed the motion, arguing that removing Bayrou would only lead to a more right-leaning prime minister.
  • The Socialists, however, proposed a separate no-confidence motion after Bayrou controversially referred to migrants “flooding” France—a term previously used by the far right.

Challenges Ahead for Bayrou’s Government

Despite surviving the no-confidence vote, Bayrou’s administration still faces political and economic challenges:

  1. Final approval from the Senate – The budget must pass in the upper-house Senate before becoming law.
  2. Public backlash – The cost-cutting measures, including a special corporate tax, have drawn criticism from business leaders like luxury tycoon Bernard Arnault.
  3. Potential government collapse – Analysts predict a 70% chance that Bayrou’s government could fall in the coming months.

Uncertain Future for France’s Political Landscape

President Macron has faced calls to resign since dissolving parliament last year, leading to a divided legislature and a stronger far-right presence. His decision to call snap elections in 2024 continues to spark debate among analysts and allies.

Meanwhile, the far-right leader Marine Le Pen is set to face a verdict on March 31 in her trial over fake EU parliament jobs, with a possible conviction disqualifying her from the 2027 elections.