As the November 5 election approaches, Vice President Kamala Harris holds a slim lead over former President Donald Trump, according to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll. The survey, conducted over three days and concluding on Sunday, reveals Harris ahead by just one percentage point, with 44% of registered voters favoring her compared to 43% for Trump. The poll has a margin of error of approximately three percentage points.
Since entering the race in July, Harris has maintained a lead over Trump in all previous Reuters/Ipsos polls. However, her advantage has gradually decreased since late September. A prior poll, conducted from October 16 to 21, had shown Harris leading Trump by two points.
The poll, which included responses from 1,150 US adults, of whom 975 were registered voters, indicates that Trump outperforms Harris on key issues voters prioritize. When asked about the candidates’ handling of the economy, unemployment, and jobs, 47% of respondents favored Trump, while only 37% supported Harris. The economy continues to be a top concern, with 26% of voters identifying it as the nation’s most pressing issue, followed closely by political extremism at 24% and immigration at 18%.
Trump also enjoys a significant lead on immigration, with 48% of voters supporting his hardline policies, including mass deportations, versus 33% for Harris. Furthermore, Harris’s previous advantage regarding political extremism is shrinking, with 40% of respondents favoring her approach compared to 38% for Trump. This marks a decline from her seven-point lead in the October 16-21 poll.
In her campaign, Harris has focused on Trump’s involvement in the January 6, 2021, Capitol riots, where his supporters sought to overturn the 2020 election results. She is set to deliver what her campaign describes as her final major pre-election speech at the site of Trump’s rally before the insurrection.
Conversely, Trump counters by labeling Harris’s policies as extreme, alleging they would lead to a socialist takeover of US institutions. Despite Harris’s slight lead, it may not be sufficient for victory in the Electoral College, which ultimately decides the election outcome.
Polling data shows that Harris and Trump are nearly tied in crucial battleground states, which are expected to be decisive in the election. Trump won the Electoral College in the 2016 election despite losing the popular vote to Hillary Clinton by two points.
Voter turnout will likely be a determining factor in this closely contested race. In the 2020 election, about two-thirds of US adults voted, representing the highest turnout in over a century. In the latest poll, 89% of registered Democrats and 93% of registered Republicans expressed certainty about voting, suggesting greater enthusiasm compared to the 2020 election, when 74% of Democrats and 79% of Republicans were confident they would vote.
Among likely voters, Harris also holds a narrow lead over Trump, 47% to 46%, highlighting the tight competition as both candidates prepare for the final days leading up to the election.