Oil prices jumped sharply on Monday, rising by more than $1 a barrel. The increase was fueled by several geopolitical events disrupting global supply. The main triggers were Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil sites, OPEC’s choice to keep output steady, and U.S. steps involving Venezuelan airspace.
Why Are Ukraine’s Attacks Affecting Global Oil Prices?
Ukrainian military operations targeted Russia’s critical oil export infrastructure in the Black Sea. Drones struck two tankers headed for the key port of Novorossiysk and damaged a mooring point at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal. This terminal handles about 1% of the world’s crude oil. While loadings continued, the attacks heightened fears of a sustained disruption to Russian exports. Analysts say this directly fueled the price rally as traders priced in potential supply losses.
What Did OPEC Decide and Why Does It Matter?
In a move that supported prices, the OPEC+ group of oil producers chose to keep output steady for the first quarter of 2026. This halts its earlier plan to slowly bring more barrels back to the market. Analysts said the decision offered “some relief” to traders, easing worries about a potential oversupply. This disciplined approach helped steady prices after four straight months of losses.
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Is the Venezuela Situation a Major Concern for Oil Markets?
While adding to the day’s tense backdrop, the situation with Venezuela was seen as a secondary factor. Over the weekend, President Donald Trump declared the airspace above Venezuela “closed,” sparking fresh uncertainty. Venezuela is a major oil producer, but analysts downplayed immediate supply risks. “I don’t think anyone is too worried about the loss of supply from Venezuela,” said John Kilduff of Again Capital. The primary market focus remained firmly on the Ukraine conflict.
What Were the Final Price Movements?
At the close of trading, Brent crude futures rose 1.27%, or 79 cents, to $63.17 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 1.32%, or 77 cents, to $59.32 a barrel. The rise signaled a rebound after a long slump, reversing the negative mood seen in recent months.
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What Are Experts Saying About Market Sentiment?
Analysts described a jittery market primarily worried about Russian supply. “The market is very nervous at the moment because of possible loss of Russian crude supply,” Kilduff noted. Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group pointed to the combination of Ukrainian attacks and OPEC’s production commitment creating an “optimistic state” for prices, despite ongoing concerns about global demand.
