The AIADMK at present banks on its strongholds in districts such as Salem, Coimbatore, Theni, parts of Dharmapuri and Krishnagiri. DMK on the other hand is focusing on its traditional strongholds but also on AIADMK’s strongholds in the state. The DMK launched its campaign from Salem which shows that their primary focus is on the Western belt where the Gounder community dominates political discourse. Chief Minister Edappadi K. Palaniswami, who is a Gounder himself is currently the pride of the community as he is the first ever Gounder Chief Minister. However, this does not mean that the AIADMK will be able to electorally consolidate the entire community. The DMK is trying to win over the section of the Gounder community that the AIADMK is not able to consolidate.
As the Gounders dominate the Western belt, there is another community that cannot be left out: the Vanniyars, which is the largest community in Tamil Nadu. For decades, the regional parties have been trying to appease them. For instance, DMK Chief M.K. Stalin announced that one of his poll promises would be to establish a quota for the Vanniyars within the 20% reservation for Most Backward Communities (MBCs). The Vanniyars constitute 75% of the MBC list. The Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) led by Dr. Ramadoss is often termed as a Vanniyar-based political party. However, the previous elections have shown that the vote of the Vanniyar community is not consolidated to one particular party and is split in places such as Dharmapuri and Krishnagiri.
Another important community in Tamil Nadu is the Dalit community, especially the Paraiyars. They are the biggest group within the state’s Scheduled Caste community. Viduthalai Siruthaigal Katchi (VCK) under its Chief Thirumavalavan has become the most prominent pro-Dalit party in the state. They are capable of consolidating a major chunk of Paraiyar votes in North Chennai and certain districts of the Western belt. Having the VCK as an alliance partner has strengthened DMK’s fight for 2021. The Arundhathiyars -a prominent Dalit community- are based mostly in the Western and Nothern belts in the state. The BJP’s State Secretary L. Murugan hails from this community and many political commentators view his appointment as a strategic move from the BJP.
The Mukkukathor community, which is primarily based in Theni district has historically supported the AIADMK. This is also the home district of Deputy Chief Minister and AIADMK leader O.Panneerselvam. Andipatty Assembly Constituency in the district has been an AIADMK stronghold, and both former Chief Ministers and AIADMK Supremos
M. G. Ramachandran and J.Jayalalithaa have won from the constituency. However, in 2019 during the by-elections and due to the split in the AIADMK and the formation of the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK), the then incumbent MLA Thangatamizhselvan (formerly from the AIADMK) stepped down to join the AMMK. Currently, Thangatamizhselvan has joined the DMK and is poised to be their strongman in the constituency. The Mukkulathor (Thevar) vote bank may scatter, but will remain a critical one for the AIADMK as they have historically been known to vote en masse.
In a similar manner, the Mudaliyar community has historically been supporting the DMK. They have not been as politically prominent as the Mukkulathors but their presence in Northern districts such as Tiruvallur, Kancheepuram, Thiruvannamalai is critical for the DMK. The National parties have a considerable presence in Tamil Nadu’s southern districts. The Nadar community is prominent in these districts and the BJP and INC both have a sizable support base within the community. BJP’s former Central Minister Pon Radhakrishnan is from Kanyakumari and he commands a huge support base here. However, post the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, his electoral prospects have stayed inactive. Former Member of Legislative Assembly (MLA) and AIADMK member, Nainar Nagendran is currently the face of BJP in Tirunelveli district. The INC also has a sizable support base amongst the Nadar community. The late H. Vasanthakumar who died as an incumbent MP of Kanyakumari commanded great respect amongst both the Hindu Nadars and the Christian Nadars. This paved way for his comprehensive victory in the 2019 General Elections.
In the 2016 assembly elections, the AIADMK was elected to power for a second time, with a slightly reduced majority, winning 134 seats out of the 235. The AIADMK led alliance managed to secure 41% of the votes, while the DMK led alliance secured roughly 40% of the votes and 90 seats. The AIADMK repeated its record of being the only party to be re-elected in the state. In the upcoming elections, parties are leaving no stone unturned to appease voters. While incumbent Chief Minister Edappadi K. Palaniswami has promised concrete houses to voters, M.K. Stalin has promised to waive all farm and jewel loans. On the other hand, Kamal Hassan, in an attempt to attract women voters has promised to pay a salary to housewives.
Historically, Tamil Nadu elections have always been a two-pronged contest between the AIADMK and the DMK, and while many thought the 2021 polls would be different, they have turned out to be the same battle, with different faces. While in the past the AIADMK has successfully overturned an anti-incumbency wave against itself, it remains to be seen whether they will be able to do the same this year as well.