India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Indonesia should seriously consider declaring the Bay of Bengal as a Zone of Peace. The countries in the region should pledge to refrain from granting military bases to non-littoral countries and should not allow a prolonged presence of military/dual-use vessels from non-littoral countries, Politeia Research Foundation reported.
The recent report on Myanmar’s Coco Islands has gathered attention in South Asia and beyond.The authors in the report mentioned that Tatmadaw (Myanmar military) is carrying out new construction activity on Greater Coco, which includes ‘two new hangars, a new causeway and freshly lengthened 2,300-metre runway. The authors further stressed that new facilities can ‘support aircraft..to conduct maritime surveillance operations.’ The authors state that although China has denied carrying out construction activitiesm nonetheless, they allude to the possible use of such facilities by the China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in the near future, given the growing presence of Beijing in Myanmar.
The Bay of Bengal has witnessed numerous non-traditional security threats, such as forced migration, human trafficking, illegal narcotics trade, humanitarian crisis, tsunamis and cyclones. However, thus far, the Bay of Bengal was never a geopolitical hotspots.
The Bay of Bengal has become a theatre of strategic competitio as numerous reports have speculated possible Chinese military activities in the Coco Islands. In 2001, the Irrawaddy reported that Tatmadaw “with the help of China…[had]..set up signals intelligence (SIGNIT) equipment on Hainggyi Island, Coco Island and Zadetkyi Island.”
In 2007, various experts argued that there never was a SIGNIT base on Coco Island. However, reports about Chinese involvement in Myanmar’s naval bases persisted.
In 2014, Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis referred to the presence of “Chinese technicians and instructors…on radar installations in naval bases” and that the Indian navy “intercepted fishing trawlers flying Myanmar flags off the Andaman Islands. On inspection, all the crew turned out to be Chinese nationals.”
Three years later, photographic evidence surfaced that bolstered claims that Coco Island is witnessing increased military-related activities which include “reclamation of land, expansion of the airstrip, construction of a new naval pier, and the installation of a new radar station with three SHORAD guns.”
In March 2023, after the Chatham House publication’s report, suspicion increased that Beijing is indeed involved in intelligence gathering through a set-up in the Coco Islands.
China’s foreign ministry and Myanmar’s State Administrative Council (SAC) have reportedly referred to Beijing’s involvement in construction activity in Coco Islands as “sheer nonsense” and “absurd” respectively, Politeia Research Foundation reported.
Despite repeated denials, the speculation that the Chinese military will eventually make its presence felt in Coco Islands shows no signs of abatement. Partly this may have to do with China’s strategic behaviour.
In 2015, the Chinese leadership emphatically stated that they do “not intend to pursue militarisation” of the artificial islands in the South China Sea. However, within a few years, at least three islands in the South China Sea witnessed significant militarisation, Politeia Research Foundation reported.
Therefore, given Beijing’s many leverages on Myanmar, many expect China to adopt a similar strategy – deny and then demonstrate military presence – in Coco Islands as well.
In addition to Myanmar, there is a substantive increase in Chinese presence in Sri Lanka and Pakistan.
The Coco Islands are strategically located at the northern tip of India’s Andaman-Nicobar island chain. Chinese military presence on these islands will have a negative impact on India’s power projection capabilities in the region and will fundamentally alter the geopolitical dynamic of the Bay of Bengal, Politeia Research Foundation reported.
India, with its peninsular landmass jutting into the Indian Ocean, island chains in the Bay of Bengal/the Arabian Sea, formidable defence forces and vibrant economy enjoys significant advantages in the region.
Delhi has proactively responded to many non-traditional security challenges in the Indian Ocean region with alacrity. As a liberal democracy, India has sought to uphold the rule of law in the maritime domain and has not violated the territorial integrity of its neighbours.
Neither did India make unreasonable maritime claims nor did it create artificial islands for military purposes. In fact, India has abided by the verdict of the Permanent Court of Arbitration on a maritime boundary dispute with Bangladesh in the Bay of Bengal.
The report stated that if neighbouring countries tend to discard Indian concerns and allow extra-regional powers to establish military bases, there may be demands within India to re-examine its accommodative foreign policy.
Moreover, such military bases will result in trust deficit and acrimony among the Bay of Bengal littoral states, which will scare away foreign direct investments and dent economic growth.
A peek into contemporary history may provide some pathways to ensure greater stability in the Bay of Bengal region. In the 1980s’ there was considerable discussion on the Indian Ocean as a Zone of Peace. However, the time has come to take a more disaggregated approach and think of multiple zones of peace, Politeia Research Foundation reported.
The Zone of Peace framework will also empower relatively smaller states in the region to fend off pressures from other powers demanding greater military presence. Regional frameworks such as the BBIN and the BIMSTEC can also be platforms to discuss and build the Zone of Peace framework.
In addition to diplomatic initiatives, India will have to further strengthen its defence forces’ presence in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and take necessary technological countermeasures to the SIGINT facilities in the neighbouring region.
For continued peace and prosperity in the region, countries bordering the Bay of Bengal must work diligently to contain the emergence of geopolitical competition involving non-littoral powers. Such a prudent approach will go a long way in assuaging geopolitical anxieties which have the potential to undermine the regional stability in the Bay of Bengal region, Politeia Research Foundation reported.