The ruling Congress in Rajasthan appears to be facing uncertainty in the crucial eastern parts of the desert state which are considered to be the strongholds of former Chief Minister Sachin Pilot whose power struggle with Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot is suspected to be far from over.
The absence of Pilot’s photo from Congress posters and then its belated emergence may have gone unnoticed among masses, but political observers say the impact of internal friction in the party might get reflected in the result of the November 25 Assembly election which will be declared on December 3.
The ruling party’s good show in east Rajasthan gave it an upper hand in 2018. The BJP had failed to win even a single seat in the four districts—Bharatpur, Karauli, Dausa, Swaimadhopur—in the eastern region. Pilot has significant influence over seats in districts like Jaipur, Alwar, Bharatpur, Dholpur, Karauli, Dausa, Swaimadhopur, Tonk and Ajmer. There are 66 seats in these nine districts and out of these Congress had won 37, the BJP had won 15 and others got 14 in 2018.
All the 14 independents and winners from small parties had supported the Congress to pave the way for formation of its government. Of its own 37 legislators and 14 independents, Gehlot had offered the post of ministers to 11 MLAs. The party’s own surveys now indicate that most of these 11 ministers are facing public anger for their poor performance.
In east Rajasthan, Meena voters have traditionally backed the Congress but Gujjars have supported the BJP for decades. Pilot’s hold over east Rajasthan seats is linked to his father Late Rajesh Pilot influence as he had served as an MP from Dausa and Bharatpur. Pilot himself has been an MP from Dausa and Ajmer. Currently, he is a legislator from Tonk.
Despite the posturing on social media by Gehlot, where he posted his photo with Pilot, the Congress is likely to feel the pinch and Pilot’s public statement that party seniors had advised him to move on from the bitterness related to the alleged power struggle with the Chief Minister, there are signs of an unease between the two party colleagues who belong to two different brigades—the old and the young—in the grand old party. Just days before voting, Rahul Gandhi shared the staged with Gehlot and Pilot and made them shake hands during a political rally, a move aimed at sending a message of unity in the party.
Meanwhile, in the Nehri area of Rajasthan, whose three districts of Bikaner, Hanumangarh and Sri Ganganagar account for 18 seats, the BJP has been trying to bring back into its fold some side-lined leaders like Devi Singh Bhati. Bhati’s grandson Anshuman has been fielded from the Kolayat seat in Bikaner district. He is challenging Gehlot government’s minister Bhanwar Singh Bhati, who is contesting his third election from the constituency.
In the Nehri area, there are seven constituencies in Bikaner district, five seats in Hanumangarh district and six seats in Sri Ganganagar district. In 2018 election, out of these 18 seats the Congress won eight seats, the BJP won seven seats and other won three seats. Out of the eight Congress legislators from Nehri area, three were made ministers by Gehlot.
These ministers include Education Minister B.D. Kalla, Power Minister B.S. Bhati and disaster management minister Govind Meghwal. Traditionally, Punjab politics has a bearing on the five Assembly seats in Hanumangarh district and six seats in Sri Ganganar district.
The culture and heritage of voters in these agrarian constituencies are similar to those in Punjab. On some seats, the AAP party may have some influence as the government in Punjab is headed by the party. The party is contesting all 200 seats.