China’s exports of two important minerals—germanium and antimony—have collapsed over the past three months. The fall followed a broad crackdown on smuggling and export control evasion, even at China’s top-level spy agency. Customs data published Sunday shows June sales of antimony fell 88% and germanium by 95% from January levels.
Conversely, following a diplomatic breakthrough with the United States, exports of rare earth, which were also subject to restrictions before, bounced back. But shipments of antimony and germanium are at record lows now, having led to price hikes and global supply panic.
Sudden Plunge Under New Rules
Germanium and antimony are both crucial elements of solar cells, telecommunication networks, and military systems. As far as mining and processing these metals are concerned, China is ahead of everyone else. Beijing placed stringent export restrictions on them in 2023 and 2024.
In December, therefore, China blocked exports to the US as a measure of retaliation for Western sanctions on chips. That brought about a dramatic decline in volumes. Exports of Germanium by June had fallen 95%, and antimony had fallen 88% from their January level.
Rare Earth Exports Recover After US Agreement
On the other hand, however, rare earths, which were also added to the same list of exports during April, initially fell also. The fall hit global automakers, causing some US and European automakers to halt production lines.
But the trend was reversed by a Washington-Beijing agreement. Rare earth exports recovered last month. Germanium and antimony, though, remain drastically curtailed, with no respite in view.
Crackdown on Transhipment Routes
The steep drop in export levels is simultaneous with a top-level crackdown on transhipment, by which Chinese firms were charged with diverting cargo through third countries in order to get around export restrictions. China’s State Security Ministry last week acknowledged that it intercepted a few such attempts. The agency is now actively monitoring and blocking these smuggling routes.
Only seven days ago, Reuters reported unusually large shipments of antimony into the US from Thailand and Mexico, likely linked to a Chinese company. Currently, China’s exports of antimony to Thailand are down 90% from a peak in April. Moreover, no exports to Mexico have been shipped since April.
Spot Prices Soar
The restrictions have hit global prices hard. The price of high-purity germanium has increased more than two times since China imposed restrictions on the element in July 2023. Antimony prices have risen fourfold since May 2023, a further hike.
While China expands its grip on critical minerals, supply chains everywhere are increasingly strained. Meanwhile, customers rush to find substitutes. Evading controls, however, appears to be increasingly risky—and expensive—with Beijing’s security machinery now in the picture.
