Ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the US, Michael Kugelman, Director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center, remarked that China is the central factor driving the evolving strategic partnership between India and the US. Kugelman pointed out that China will likely feature prominently in discussions between PM Modi and US President Donald Trump during their meeting.

“China is really the factor that has really been the main glue that has brought this strategic partnership together,” Kugelman said, underscoring that although foreign policy will cover a range of topics, China will remain a central issue.

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Economic Competition and the Quad Summit

Kugelman added that President Trump is likely to focus on ramping up US efforts to surpass China, particularly in economic competition. This will create ample discussion points for the two leaders, who share a focus on strengthening the India-US ties.

In terms of the Quad, a key regional security framework, Kugelman highlighted its significance as India is set to host the upcoming Quad Leaders’ Summit. He predicted that PM Modi would likely extend an invitation to President Trump to attend the summit in India later this year. Kugelman expects Trump to accept, which would make it a major highlight of the Modi visit.

Tariff and Trade Discussions

Kugelman also anticipated that the issue of tariffs would be raised during the meeting. Despite India having already reduced tariffs on US goods, President Trump may push for further reductions. However, Kugelman noted that India’s proactive measures to address key issues, such as tariff cuts, taking back undocumented Indians, and increasing oil imports from the US, could help mitigate direct demands from Trump.

“The partnership is in a very good place,” Kugelman concluded, pointing out that President Trump is a strong supporter of India and its growing global role, ensuring a positive tone for the upcoming bilateral talks.