China is speeding up the expansion and modernization of its nuclear stockpile, growing concerns among US military leaders and arms control analysts regarding regional and worldwide security.
General Anthony Cotton, head of US Strategic Command, informed Congress in March that Chinese President Xi Jinping's order to prepare the military to capture Taiwan by 2027 is a primary motivator for the nuclear expansion. The expansion involves capabilities on land, air, and sea and indicates that China is intent on strengthening both the size and scope of its strategic forces.
While China's 2023 national defense policy reiterates a "no first use" vow vowing not to launch nuclear weapons against non-nuclear nations the United States experts think the policy has boundaries. The Pentagon's yearly report indicated that Beijing would consider first use in the event of a conventional attack that brings its nuclear forces under threat or if a defeat in Taiwan presented an existential threat to the Communist Party.
Independent estimates suggest that China now has approximately 600 nuclear warheads. The nation is building some 350 new missile silos and several bases for road-mobile launchers. The People's Liberation Army has some 712 land-based missile launchers, with 462 having the range to reach the continental United States.
Most of these launchers are designed for shorter-range, regional targets, and not all of them can carry nuclear payloads. Nevertheless, the scale of production and upgrade indicates China's long-term objective to build a diversified arsenal of low-yield precision strike missiles and intercontinental ballistic missiles to deliver multi-megaton strikes.
The Pentagon estimates that by 2030 China may have over 1,000 deployable nuclear warheads, a dramatic expansion that would rank it among the world's fastest-growing nuclear states.
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China's defense ministry reaffirmed its pledge to a "nuclear strategy of self-defense" and asserted that a nuclear war "cannot be won and must not be fought." Officials blamed the US for magnifying a so-called "Chinese nuclear threat" to deceive the international community.
In spite of these assurances, Washington and independent analysts caution that China's accelerating growth and modernization may upset strategic balances and raise the stakes for prospective wars over Taiwan or regional security in the Indo-Pacific.
