The Taiwan Strait remains a pivotal region in global geopolitics, where US policies play a crucial role in influencing regional stability. Under President Biden, US-Taiwan relations strengthened significantly, with a focus on defence cooperation and economic partnerships. With the return of Donald Trump to the White House, questions arise about the future direction of US policy toward Taiwan amid escalating tensions with China.
The Trump 1.0 Legacy
During his first term (2017–2021), President Donald Trump made a significant shift in US policy toward Taiwan, particularly in its dealings with China. In an unprecedented move, he spoke with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen shortly after his election, setting the tone for his administration’s approach. This call, the first communication between a US president-elect and a Taiwanese leader in nearly four decades, enraged Beijing, which considers Taiwan a breakaway province. Trump’s disregard for China’s “One China” policy signalled his administration’s broader strategy to confront China on multiple fronts, ranging from trade to military presence in the region. The Trump administration approved over $18 billion in arms sales to Taiwan, including high-profile F-16 fighter jets, emphasizing support for Taiwan’s military readiness against growing Chinese threats. According to the Security Assistance Monitor, Taiwan ranked as the second-highest recipient of US arms offers in 2019 and the fifth highest in 2020. Additionally, US Navy operations in the Taiwan Strait challenged Beijing’s territorial assertions, showcasing a commitment to maintaining freedom of navigation in the region.
While Trump’s support for Taiwan was appreciated in Taipei, it carried serious risks. These measures, part of a strategy of ‘strategic clarity,’ provoked aggressive Chinese responses, including military drills and frequent incursions into Taiwan’s airspace. Although these actions bolstered Taiwan’s security, they also heightened the risk of miscalculation and conflict in the region.
From Trump to Biden’s Strategic Balancing Act
President Biden continued Trump’s policy of strengthening ties with Taiwan but adopted a more measured approach. His administration allocated $4.5 billion in military aid to Taiwan and designated it as a ‘Major Non-NATO Ally,’ enhancing the island’s defensive capabilities against Chinese aggression. Additionally, Congress extended the initiative by adding an extra year and $2 billion in foreign military financing, raising the total to $6.5 billion through fiscal year 2027. Economic and defence ties between the US and Taiwan also deepened, with increased arms sales and collaborative efforts to strengthen Taiwan’s domestic defence industry. The Biden administration further advocated for Taiwan’s participation in global organizations, such as the World Health Organization (WHO).
However, Biden avoided highly provocative actions, such as selling weapons with prominent international profiles like F-16 fighter jets or advanced longer-range capabilities, such as the Army Tactical Missile Systems and Standoff Land Attack Missile Expanded Response, which were part of Foreign Military Sales (FMS) notifications under the Trump administration. By October 2024, his administration has authorized $7.7 billion in military sales, prioritizing practical defence upgrades. This approach reflected a cautious but steady effort to support Taiwan without exacerbating tension with China.
What Trump 2.0 May Bring
With Trump’s return to the White House, his Taiwan policy is likely to be shaped by a mix of transactional considerations, strategic competition with China, and continuity in arms sales and military support. During Trump’s first term, US-Taiwan relations were significantly bolstered through high-profile visits by US officials and enhanced arms sales. However, Trump’s rhetoric often tied Taiwan’s security to financial contributions, framing US defence commitments in transactional terms.
A second Trump administration may introduce challenges and uncertainties for Taiwan. Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy style and reluctance to explicitly commit to Taiwan’s defence could bring back strategic ambiguity. His repeated emphasis on financial contributions such as his comments in a July 2024 Bloomberg Businessweek interview suggesting Taiwan should “pay” for US security guarantees, likened to an insurance policy. Trump has also critiqued Taiwan’s dominance in the semiconductor industry, potentially complicating bilateral relations.
These statements mark a sharp divergence from the Biden administration’s position, which pledged to deploy US troops in Taiwan’s defence if necessary. However, appointments like Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Défense and Marco Rubio as Secretary of State suggest a hardline stance on China, likely signalling intensified US Navy patrols in the Taiwan Strait, approvals for advanced weaponry sales to Taiwan, and greater military collaboration with regional allies such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia.
2024 and Beyond
Looking ahead, Taiwan will need to navigate the shifting dynamics of US policy by bolstering its defence capabilities, ensuring bipartisan support in the US Congress, and deepening regional partnerships. It must prioritize preparedness, resilience, and diplomatic agility to safeguard its sovereignty and security in an increasingly volatile environment.
During Trump’s first term, his policy of strategic clarity earned strong support in Taipei. However, shifting global dynamics now present significant challenges for the United States in maintaining a delicate balance in the region. A newly elected Trump administration would face the critical task of managing the risk of military escalation in the Taiwan Strait. Chinese President Xi Jinping has reaffirmed China’s determination to reunify Taiwan, even by force if necessary. Trump’s confrontational policies, such as conducting freedom of navigation operations in the Taiwan Strait, risk provoking aggressive Chinese countermeasures, thereby heightening the chances of conflict. To address these challenges, a Trump 2.0 administration would need to adopt a stable and nuanced strategy aimed at safeguarding stability and preserving the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. Furthermore, maintaining a visible and capable U.S. military presence in the Indo-Pacific, coupled with joint military exercises alongside regional allies, will be essential for deterring China and ensuring peace in the region.
The author is is a doctoral candidate in the United States Studies Program at the Centre for Canadian, United States, and Latin American Studies, School for International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.
