The Iran-Israel conflict has once again escalated, raising concerns about the potential for a broader war in the Middle East. While Iran insists that it does not want a full-scale conflict, its actions seem contradictory, particularly in its attacks on Israel through proxy groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. Israel, in response, has demonstrated its military strength with advanced technology, but it faces challenges as it battles on multiple fronts. As the world takes sides, the complex interplay of alliances and power struggles come to the forefront. India, standing firmly against terrorism, supports Israel, yet must carefully drive its diplomatic relationship with Iran.
Iran’s Motive: A Show of Power & Solidarity to Hezbollah and Hamas?
One critical question arises: why did Iran attack Israel if it does not want a broader war? Could the attack be more about proving Iran’s strength to its allies, Hezbollah and Hamas, rather than a direct attempt to engage Israel in a full-scale war? After the deaths of Hezbollah Chief Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Qassem Soleimani, Iran may have felt pressure to demonstrate its continued influence in the region. This could be seen as Iran’s way of asserting its power amidst the ongoing protests within the country, using Israel as a convenient target to distract from internal unrest and strengthen ties with its proxy allies.
Israel’s Response: Retaliation with a Clear Motto
Israel’s stance has always been clear: “Whoever attacks us, we will attack them.” This guiding principle drives Israel’s military strategy, and its primary concerns in this conflict are the release of the abducted hostages and ensuring the survival and future of the nation. Israel’s powerful defense systems and superior military capabilities have enabled it to retaliate effectively, despite the challenge of fighting on multiple fronts—from the Gaza Strip to Hezbollah in Lebanon, and potentially, Iran.
One of Israel’s immediate goals in this conflict is to dismantle the rocket-launching capabilities of its adversaries. Rocket fire from Hezbollah and Hamas poses a direct threat to Israel’s northern settlements. By targeting these launch sites, Israel aims to neutralize the threat to its civilian population and protect its border communities. The dismantling of these capabilities is essential not only for immediate safety but for Israel’s long-term security strategy.
Israel’s warning to Iran has been firm: Tehran will pay the price if it continues to provoke. Yet, while Iran claims not to seek a broader war, one must ask: if Iran truly wants to avoid escalation, why is it failing to convince Hamas to release the hostages? Iran’s influence over its proxy groups is undeniable, and its reluctance to push for the hostages’ release raises questions about Tehran’s real intentions.
Israel’s Fight on Multiple Fronts
Israel currently faces challenges on all sides. In addition to battling Hamas in Gaza, Israel is dealing with Hezbollah in the north and monitoring Iranian actions in Syria and Lebanon. Despite these threats, Israel remains resolute, drawing strength from its advanced military technologies, intelligence capabilities, and support from global allies. While many nations would struggle under such circumstances, Israel has not only managed to hold its ground but continues to project power throughout the region. This resilience demonstrates that even when surrounded by adversaries, Israel is not a nation to be underestimated.
One of Israel’s key military objectives is to eliminate the rocket-launching capabilities that threaten its northern settlements, particularly from Hezbollah-controlled regions. These missile systems pose a direct threat to civilian populations and must be neutralized for Israel to maintain its territorial security. In dismantling these systems, Israel seeks not only to minimize immediate threats but also to degrade the military capacity of its adversaries in the long term.
The Risk of Escalation: What Would Happen If Israel Targets Iran’s Nuclear Facilities?
If Israel decides to target Iran’s nuclear facilities in response to continued provocations, it could trigger a massive regional war. Israel has long considered Iran’s nuclear ambitions an existential threat, and pre-emptive strikes on these facilities would be seen as necessary to preserve its security. However, such an attack could result in retaliation from Iran, which may involve targeting Israeli cities, and US military bases in the region, and even threatening global energy supply lines via the Strait of Hormuz.
The global consequences of such an escalation would be dire, potentially drawing the US and its allies into a broader military conflict, while destabilizing already volatile regional dynamics.
The World Is Divided: Who Stands with Whom?
As the conflict between Israel and Iran unfolds, the global response is sharply divided. Russia and China, and of course countries like Syria and Lebanon already under threat, are backing Iran, offering economic and diplomatic support while opposing Western interference in the Middle East. China’s relationship with Iran, particularly through oil trade and military cooperation, suggests that Beijing may offer more than just vocal support if the conflict escalates. However, China’s cautious foreign policy approach will likely stop short of direct military involvement, focusing instead on economic and strategic ties.
Meanwhile, the US, UK, and India have openly supported Israel, although India maintains a delicate diplomatic balance due to its longstanding ties with Iran. India’s support for Israel is rooted in its firm stance against terrorism, aligning with Israel’s fight against groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. However, New Delhi must also consider its strategic interests in Iran, particularly regarding the Chabahar port and regional trade routes. Will India’s reaffirmed support for Israel affect its relationship with Iran? This remains a critical question as India steers the fine line between counterterrorism and diplomacy.
The Role of Arab and Muslim Nations: Will They Stand with Iran?
Iran’s hope for support from other Muslim and Arab nations is uncertain. Saudi Arabia, for instance, has made it clear that it is not interested in becoming involved in the Israel-Palestine conflict. Riyadh’s primary concern is the safety of its own citizens, distancing itself from any direct role in the conflict, particularly with its focus on economic reforms and modernization under Vision 2030.
Jordan, too, has stated that it will not allow its territory to become a battlefield between Israel and Iran, emphasizing its commitment to maintaining stability. Other Arab nations, wary of Iran’s growing influence in the region, are unlikely to offer Iran the military support it would need in a broader war with Israel.
Is China Truly Backing Iran or Offering Only Vocal Support?
While China’s strategic ties with Iran, particularly through energy trade and infrastructure projects, are well known, its role in a potential escalation remains ambiguous. Is China truly backing Iran, or is it merely offering vocal support to maintain its economic interests? Beijing’s cautious approach to foreign conflicts suggests that it may limit its involvement to diplomatic support and arms sales, steering clear of military confrontation. However, its backing of Iran in international forums, particularly in opposition to US sanctions, gives Tehran some leverage in navigating the conflict.
India’s Diplomatic Balancing Act
India, as a rising global power, is uniquely positioned in this conflict. On one hand, its strong stance against terrorism aligns it with Israel, a key partner in defense and counterterrorism technologies. On the other hand, India’s long-standing relationship with Iran, especially through the Chabahar port and trade routes, makes it crucial for New Delhi to maintain a careful diplomatic balance.
India’s ability to manoeuvre this complex web of alliances could position it as a mediator in the future, as the world looks to India to help de-escalate tensions while maintaining its own national interests. Can India balance its support for Israel with its strategic ties to Iran, or will it be forced to choose sides if the conflict escalates further?
Conclusion
The Middle East is burning, and Israel appears uninterested in stepping back from its military objectives. As tensions escalate, one must consider the implications of continued Iranian retaliation. Could Iran find itself in a situation akin to Ukraine, paving the way for self-destruction? With the world divided—powers like the US, UK, and India firmly supporting Israel, while Russia and China extend varying degrees of backing to Iran—the geopolitical landscape remains precarious. India’s role as a potential mediator is critical, yet it must carefully balance its commitment to counterterrorism with its longstanding diplomatic ties to Iran. The pressing question remains: will this conflict spiral into a broader war, or can cooler heads prevail in the global arena?
The Author is the CEO of Griffin Publication & Television Spokesperson, a Foreign Affairs Expert