The search for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s successor will officially begin this week, as the Liberal Party confronts significant challenges, including a damaged reputation and the looming threat of a confidence vote. Trudeau announced his decision to step down on Monday, stating he will remain in office until the next Liberal leader is chosen.

Sachit Mehra, president of the Liberal Party, confirmed the party’s National Board will meet this week to initiate the democratic leadership selection process. With Parliament prorogued until March 24, the Liberals have two and a half months to elect a new leader.

Liberal Party Faces Steep Challenges

Trudeau’s resignation follows a period of declining popularity for the Liberals, plagued by economic discontent and internal divisions. University of Toronto political scientist Andrew McDougall remarked, “Avoiding the worst outcome is maybe all they can do. Can they turn it around? Maybe, but I think it will be a very heavy lift.”

Potential contenders for the leadership include former Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, who resigned abruptly in December, possibly accelerating Trudeau’s decision. Freeland, once a star recruit under Trudeau, may face backlash for her association with his government, though her public break could work in her favor.

Other candidates include Cabinet Ministers Dominic LeBlanc, Anita Anand, Mélanie Joly, François-Philippe Champagne, and former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney. Carney, who is considering a run, faces questions about his suitability for grassroots politics. Former British Columbia Premier Christy Clark has also emerged as a contender, emphasizing the need for party renewal.

Immediate Confidence Vote Likely

The new leader will face significant pressure upon taking office, with the prospect of a confidence vote looming. Parliament’s next session could see challenges to the Throne Speech or funding extensions beyond March 31, risking a snap election.

Opposition leaders signaled no intent to ease the Liberals’ struggles. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre criticized the party, stating, “ Nothing has changed. Every Liberal MP and Leadership contender supported EVERYTHING Trudeau did for 9 years, and now they want to trick voters by swapping in another Liberal face to keep ripping off Canadians for another 4 years, just like Justin.”

Similarly, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh declared, “ The Liberals do not deserve another chance, no matter who is the leader.” Bloc Quebecois leader Yves-François Blanchet dismissed the party’s ability to reinvent itself quickly.

A History of Precarious Successions

History suggests a tough road ahead for Trudeau’s successor. In 1993, Kim Campbell’s brief leadership ended in an electoral disaster, while recent UK elections saw Rishi Sunak struggle after taking over from Boris Johnson and Liz Truss.

Whether the Liberals choose an interim leader or fast-track the selection process, experts predict a steep uphill battle. As McDougall put it, “The ruling party is headed for a bad electoral defeat.”