Bull-Bear contest and volatility is expected in full swing in Indian stock markets starting a fresh week from tomorrow.
Indian equity markets seem to continue to be in the volatile mood, although some optimism can be expected in the next week, influenced by global cues, macroeconomic data releases, and sectoral rotations. Benchmark indices have managed to take support at crucial moving averages recently, maintaining long-term bullishness while facing short-term uncertainty.
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The Nifty ended last week at 24,741, a mild bullish candle despite of intraday reversals. The index is above its 100-day and 200-day EMAs (Exponential Moving Averages), indicating that longer-term trends are strong; however, volatility is close to its 20-day and 50-day EMAs, acting as resistance around 24,800–25,000 and support around 24,600–24,500. Bank Nifty reflects the same lethargy, with key levels between 54,500–54,600 resistance and 53,500–53,600 support.
Recent advances are focused in the auto and metal sectors, boosted by hopes of demand revivals and optimistic sentiment in some stocks such as M&M, Eicher Motors, and Maruti Suzuki. Conversely, IT, FMCG, and realty sectors have remained under pressure consistently, leading to faded index performance. Experts are advising a stock-specific strategy, with consumption and infrastructure-linked spaces emerging as potential out-performers.
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1. India's August inflation reading, set to be released on September 12, and key US economic announcements are expected to guide markets and direct foreign inflows. Investors are also looking out for the ECB rate decision and GDP growth in Japan.
2. US Fed policy rumours, crude price trends, and rupee-dollar fluctuations will shape risk appetite from global platforms.
3. The recent cut in the GST rate can serve as a mild stimulus, favouring consumption-driven sectors and countering pressure from tariff concerns.
A total lunar eclipse and the once-a-decade 9-9-9 numerological alignment will likely magnify market volatility, particularly in wider indices, with Mars-associated sectors (metals, defence, infrastructure) set to witness short-term rallies. Emotional turns and astrological forces are conjectural, but past experience indicates definite swings around such events.
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Analysts anticipate the markets to trade in a wide range, with a resistance level of 24,950–25,100 and support around 24,500–24,200 for the Nifty. Traders need to remain agile and keep an eye out for sector rotation and surprises triggered by global and macroeconomic signals, and look out for consumption, auto, and infrastructure stocks for relative strength.
