By Anousha Sakoui, Dawn Kopecki and Kane Wu LONDON/NEW YORK/HONG KONG, Dec 18 (Reuters) – Dealmakers got what they wanted in 2025: an almost record-breaking year for mergers and acquisitions despite a turbulent spring that threatened hopes of a revival in activity during U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term. The chase for scale is fueling a late-year rally in dealmaking that bankers and lawyers interviewed by Reuters say will continue into 2026 as companies take advantage of looser antitrust scrutiny in the U.S. and favorable markets. There were a record 70 deals globally worth over $10 billion apiece so far this year, 22 of them in the fourth quarter, Dealogic data shows. Despite a rocky first half as Trump kicked off a global trade war, deals have already surpassed $4.8 trillion so far this year, up 41% from 2024, even as the number of deals fell 6% to 38,395, according to Dealogic data as of December 16. It’s the second-biggest year ever, only bettered in 2021 when near-zero rates and COVID stimulus drove M&A to over $6 trillion. “M&A today is all about the mega deals, the race for scale,” said Anu Aiyengar, JPMorgan’s global head of advisory and M&A. “Large caps have clearly outperformed small caps. And you’ve seen that also in the M&A market.” There were four deals over $50 billion so far this year – five if you count the two offers for Warner Bros. Discovery from Netflix for $82 billion and Paramount Skydance's hostile $108 billion bid. BUSIER THAN EVER Fourth-quarter deal value is already the biggest on record for the Americas, with more to come. Several deals over $8 billion could yet be announced before the end of the year, and they could just get bigger from here, said Drago Rajkovic, Citi's global co-head of M&A. There are some $50 billion-to-$70 billion deals already "in the system" for 2026, and a $100 billion deal in the tech sector isn't "out of the question," said Rajkovic. Next year could even rival 2021. "It feels like we are pivoting into a strong multi-year M&A run. There’s plenty of reasons to see this peaking beyond any prior cycle," said Eamon Brabazon, co-head of global M&A at Bank of America. Dealmakers say less uncertainty over the macroeconomic background globally as well as a more permissive regulatory backdrop in the U.S. is swelling dealmaking. "Since this (Trump) administration is much more open to significant combinations, many boards and C-suite executives are recognizing this as an opportunity to do transformative and other strategically important transactions," Sullivan & Cromwell partner Frank Aquila said. Akeel Sachak, global head of consumer at Rothschild & Co, said his firm is busier than it has ever been. "There is no shortage of corporates thinking much more fundamentally about the composition of their portfolios and how best to position themselves in the public market," Sachak said. Companies are willing to pay more, raising deal size. “Valuations have been bid up and we've seen clients be more aggressive in terms of multiples that they're willing to pay, but remember, the buyer's currency is at a higher multiple also,” said Lazard's global head of M&A, Mark McMaster. Two of the top 10 deals globally this year were directly related to AI, with OpenAI raising $40 billion from investors led by SoftBank and a $40 billion takeover of U.S.-based Aligned Data Centers. “Within technology, there's a lot of activity that's shaping up to position yourselves as well as you can, to react to the changes that AI will bring to businesses,” said John Collins, global co-head of M&A at Morgan Stanley. And outside of the tech sector, "in most industries, there is a belief that AI will change the way a lot of business gets done. There is a view that having scale to invest in those changes is valuable," Collins added. CROSS-BORDER DEALS GROW Another trend expected to continue is a spike in cross-border dealmaking. Deals across continents were also at their highest levels since 2021 with the total value of cross-border transactions rising 46% to $1.24 trillion. Companies in the U.S. and UK were the most targeted while companies in the U.S., France and Japan were most acquisitive across borders. "There remains a dislocation in valuations between the U.S. and the rest of the world, and U.S. companies are actively looking at cross-border opportunities," said Gaurav Gooptu, managing director, Consumer & Retail Investment Banking group at BNP Paribas. There will be "more investment in the United States by large multinational companies, especially from Europe and Japan, as they look to onshore their U.S. business and compete effectively in the largest, fastest-growing global market," said Andrew Woeber, global head of M&A at Barclays. While the U.S. was the largest target nation for M&A deals so far this year, China was second. Japan saw the biggest jump in M&A deal values from last year of any region, thanks to deals for OpenAI and Toyota Industries. Ed Wittig, co-head of Asia Pacific M&A at Goldman Sachs, said many of the firm's biggest clients were once again looking offshore. “We’re seeing more Chinese companies exploring investment opportunities across different regions, with a focus on intra-Asia and Europe." To be sure, some dealmakers remain cautious, with one senior adviser saying that interest in UK deals, the world's third biggest targeted nation this year, may cool amid an uncertain political backdrop. One big trend this year was corporate divestitures. Nestor Paz-Galindo, UBS' global co-head of M&A, estimated that this year corporate divestitures and spin-offs were up 30% in terms of volume and "that will continue next year." That includes one of the biggest deals of the year – Swiss cement maker Holcim's spin-off of its North American business, Amrize, valued at $30 billion on its debut. Private equity is also back to dealmaking. Buyouts globally reached $1.1 trillion, up 51% from last year, according to Dealogic data through Dec. 15. "There's some consensus between buyers and sellers of the environment, and that tends to lead to transactions happening," said Stuart Gent, co-head of Europe private equity at Bain Capital. "Corporates are more willing to transact." (Reporting by Anousha Sakoui in London, Dawn Kopecki in New York and Kane Wu in Hong Kong, additional reporting by Charlie Conchie, editing by Deepa Babington)
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