The Indian share market closed mixed but on cautious mood today on Tuesday, September 30, 2025, ending with flat losses amid volatility before the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) highly anticipated Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting announcement. Today's trading session was the eighth consecutive day of decline for benchmark indices, indicating persistent uncertainty in the domestic and international economic landscape.
The BSE Sensex closed the day slightly down by 97.32 points or 0.12%, ending at 80,267.62, while the NSE Nifty 50 index lost 23.80 points or 0.09%, closing at 24,611.10. The broader market was relatively more resilient despite the falls, with the Nifty MidCap 100 closing almost flat and the SmallCap index trades a weak positive bias.
Sectoral performances were dull, with Media stocks suffering the maximum selling pressure, as the Nifty Media index fell by 1.23%. Defensive sectors such as PSU Banks and Metals, however, gained strength, both increasing more than 1%, buoyed by good corporate performances and demand projections. Top stocks such as Bharti Airtel, ITC, and Bajaj Finserv pulled the market down, while Adani Ports, UltraTech Cement, Tata Motors, and Bharat Electronics lifted the indexes with gains.
At the international and derivatives markets, GIFT Nifty futures predict a flat but red opening for the Indian equity markets. GIFT Nifty is trading around the 24,750 mark in the initial part of the session, indicating a consolidative attitude, with the implication of being a wait-and-watch market under the global cues as well as the domestic policy expectations. Market players are in a cautious mood amidst uncertainties like the current risk of a US government shutdown and conflicting Asian economic statistics, particularly China's sixth straight month of contraction in manufacturing activities.
With the RBI MPC meeting is set to come out with the rate cut decision by tomorrow, investor sentiment is largely shaped by speculations over potential interest rate adjustments. Despite a recent 50 basis points cut earlier this year, the six-member committee is said to be in a “neutral” policy phase, balancing low inflation levels, currently near the lower end of the RBI’s 2% to 6% range with concerns about slowing growth caused by US tariffs and geopolitical tensions.
Most economists are of the opinion that the RBI would keep rates unchanged at 5.5% this time around, but a substantial minority predict a quarter-point cut as an incentive to buoy domestic demand. The RBI Governor's words will be listened to very carefully for clues of forward guidance. Investors look for dovish indications that would reinforce market optimism, particularly following continued foreign selling in the last few weeks.
All-in-all, today’s Indian stock market session displays cautious investor behavior amid subdued trading and volatility. The flat trading stance suggested by GIFT Nifty highlights uncertainty in the run-up to the MPC meeting, where rate cut expectations are a key focal point. Considering the current economic backdrop, marked by global risks, trade tensions, and domestic reforms the market may continue to trade with consolidation and sensitivity until the RBI’s interest rate cut decision provides clearer directional hints.
