The Bharatiya Janata Party that has been in power in Haryana for the last ten years, is struggling for survival in the ongoing Assembly polls, largely because its tried and tested formula of pitting Jats Vs Non Jats, does not appear to be succeeding. In fact, the contest is now between the BJP and the Saffron Brigade on one hand, and the people on the other hand. The Congress would be the obvious beneficiary and though short of resources, the grand old party has managed to sustain its pole position due to a superior strategy. While it is not fair to speak about numbers while the polling is taking place, it is a foregone conclusion that short of a miracle that can work for the BJP, the Congress is poised to return to power. The reason for the Congress being so confident is that people want a change and this would be reflected very clearly on the counting day.
In Haryana, the anger against the ruling party is largely directed against the policies of the Central government and to a lesser degree against the State administration. In state where every household is virtually in a competition to send its young boys to the Army and the armed forces, the Agniveer scheme has been the subject of great criticism. Unlike earlier times, when one could see young men training and preparing for the Army recruitment at the various stadiums, there is no longer any enthusiasm despite repeated assurances by central leaders. The farmers agitation and the inability of the government to deal with the demands in an amicable manner, has made the BJP immensely unpopular in the rural belt, where party candidates were struggling to make their presence felt. In addition, the treatment meted to the Wrestlers while they were protesting on the streets of New Delhi, is deeply etched in the minds of the people. The majority of medals which the country won in the recent Paris Olympics were won by athletes from the state.
The slogan, Jai Jawan, Jai Kisan and Jai Pehalwan has an emotional connect, and essentially is responsible for the BJP’s dismal situation by and large. Former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, who has been spearheading the campaign has been successful in exposing the fault lines in the State government’s policies. He is being fully backed by Rahul Gandhi, for whom, defeating the BJP is the primary target. Ajay Maken, who was the chairman of the Screening Committee, has provided the data support to the campaign, by identifying issues and candidates for this crucial election. On Thursday, Ashok Tanwar, who was the BJP nominee for the Sirsa Lok Sabha seat in the Parliamentary elections, and who lost to Kumari Selja, rejoined the Congress at an election rally of Rahul Gandhi and Hooda. Sources confirmed that it was pressure from his family, wife and son, and his supporters which eventually changed Ashok Tanwar’s mind. For record’s sake, Ashok was with the Congress since his NSUI days and occupied many crucial positions. He had certain reservations because of which he had unexpectedly left, and subsequently did some party hopping before returning back to the Congress fold. The BJP success in the polls both in 2014 and 2019 was because it had adhered to the Bhajan Lal formula of pitting the non-Jats vs the Jats. It succeeded till the going was good but at the end of the day, the performance of the state government left a lot to be desired. Moreover, the expectations, people had from the party remained unfulfilled.
During the 10 years, neither the non Jats or the Jats, as the BJP tried to classify them for the polls, thrived. On every parameter the State government seemed to be lacking and this is what is going to be seen when the result comes out. The debate in Haryana is on whether the ongoing polls were a referendum on the Centre or the State. In this context, it is important to point out that the results would not in any manner affect the stability of the Central government, where Narendra Modi, will continue to be supreme and remain in power. However, it would certainly be a cause of worry, and force the Centre to have a relook at some of its policies. Another dimension to the possible BJP defeat is that all the Northern States, Himachal, Punjab, probably J&K and Delhi, shall have non-BJP governments. Therefore, in order to distract attention from this reality, the BJP could launch Operation Lotus in some areas to weaken the INDIA bloc. The BJP would also be concerned over how the Maha Yuti government in Maharashtra would fare in the Assembly polls there. And if there was to be change of guard in the State, it would be a development that shall not be good news for any BJP supporter. One of the factors, other than those stated above which is going against the party in Haryana, is that like in the past, it had not entered the fray as a cohesive and united entity. Its leaders were unhappy and the selection of nominees left many upset. Efforts to contain anti-incumbency by changing Manohar Lal Khattar with Nayeb Singh Saini, has apparently not worked. The debate now is only about numbers. How much would the party get eventually. There is also speculation whether the Congress would repeat its 2005 performance or be somewhere around that figure. The answers shall come on October 8th.