The market predicts strong performances by both the BJP and JDU, whereas the RJD and Congress appear to be struggling. (File Picture)
As Bihar waits for its 2025 Assembly Election results, excitement is at its peak. The final results will be declared on November 14, and all eyes are on who will form the next government. Ahead of the big day, Rajasthan’s famous 'Phalodi Satta Bazaar', known for its political predictions, has released its estimates.
Like every election, this market has once again become the talk of the nation for its bold predictions. Interestingly, the betting trends suggest that the NDA is likely to return to power, while the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) seems to be falling short.
The Phalodi Satta Bazaar, located in Rajasthan’s Marwar region, has a long connection with politics. Its “rates” or odds often hint at the direction of the political wind. According to the latest market update, the NDA is expected to win between 145 and 148 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan may get 86 to 89 seats.
The market predicts strong performances by both the BJP and JDU, whereas the RJD and Congress appear to be struggling.
As per the Phalodi Satta Bazaar, Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party is unlikely to win any seat.
According to traders in the Phalodi market, Nitish Kumar’s JDU has built a stronger ground network this time. The seat-sharing formula, alliance unity, and women’s support are being seen as positive factors for the NDA.
The BJP’s vote base and campaign strategy are also considered stronger than before. The market believes these factors could help NDA cross the majority mark comfortably.
The Phalodi Satta Bazaar operates from a small town in Rajasthan’s Jodhpur district and has been active for decades. Here, “rates” or odds are set based on public sentiment and ground reports — much like how stock market prices depend on demand and supply.
If the mood on the ground favors a political party, its rates fall, indicating a higher chance of winning.
Surprisingly, the Phalodi market has often been remarkably accurate in its forecasts. In several past elections — including Lok Sabha and state polls — its predictions have closely matched the actual results.
Before the Phalodi Satta Bazaar updates, 18 major exit polls had already shown a clear edge for the NDA. Out of the 243 assembly seats in Bihar, the NDA is projected to win around 153 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan may get 85 seats.
In 2020, the NDA had won 125 seats, which means the alliance could gain around 29 seats this time. Meanwhile, the RJD-Congress alliance might lose about 27 seats.
Counting preparations are complete across Bihar’s 38 districts. All strong rooms have been sealed, and the counting of votes will begin at 8 AM on November 14.
The postal ballots and ballot papers will be counted first, followed by the EVMs.
This year, Bihar recorded an impressive 67% voter turnout, with women voting nearly 9% more than men. Now, all eyes are on the big question — will the Phalodi Satta Bazaar’s prediction come true again, or will Tejashwi Yadav script a dramatic turnaround?
The answer will unfold on November 14, when Bihar’s mandate is revealed.
