“I stand squarely behind my decision,” said President Joe Biden in a televised address on Monday on his decision to withdraw US forces, which led to the immediate collapse of the Afghanistan government. “This did unfold more quickly than we anticipated,” he said. But then, while conceding that the “the buck stops” with him, Biden squarely blamed the Afghan leadership and the army for the mess. “After 20 years I’ve learned the hard way that there was never a good time to withdraw US forces,” he added.
There’s no doubt that the Afghan leadership and army failed miserably to stop the Taliban surge. For a distant observer, it’s difficult to comprehend how an army of over three lakh soldiers failed to stop a militia of 50,000 which were roundly routed within a month when the Americans landed in Afghanistan soon after 9/11. But then Biden would be dim-witted to believe that the Afghan forces were just fighting the Taliban. They were fighting the armed militia supported and guided by Pakistan and China. It is a neo-Cold War that the Americans have lost, and Saigon-like, as many people across the world see it, they have deserted Afghanistan with all its mess.
Just a few initial statements from the Taliban would be enough to understand who is holding the Afghan string this time! The Taliban on Tuesday announced an “amnesty” across Afghanistan and urged women to join its government. This stands in sharp contrast to the pre-9/11 Taliban who were fanatically obsessed with their Islamic ideology and regularly used medievalistic practices like stoning, amputation and public execution during their regime. “The Islamic Emirate doesn’t want women to be victims,” Enamullah Samangani, a member of the Taliban’s cultural commission, said after the Taliban entered Kabul on Sunday. “They (women) should be in the government structure according to Shariah law,” he added.
Former Ambassador Rajiv Dogra, in an interaction with this writer, says that the Taliban this time have become “a lot more media savvy. So, they might sugarcoat their intent”. He, however, is certain that the regime will enforce the Shariah laws. “The last time Taliban oppressed women, massacred ethnic and religious minorities, and banned music and television. They will re-impose many of their repressive laws and policies,” he adds.
The Taliban may be smarter and media-savvy this time. But to regard them as less barbaric and brutal would be as momentous a folly as the Clinton Administration’s willingness to see them as a “constructive force” in Afghanistan, on Benazir Bhutto’s insistence. Taking a cue from their partners, especially the Chinese, who are past masters in saying one thing and doing just the opposite, the Taliban will now keep a mask to hide their true, blood-splattered face.
With the Taliban back in Kabul, the “past” in Afghanistan seems to have become its “present”. As things settle down, one suspects the country will see a replay of their innings in the 1990s. The Taliban would sooner than later go back to what they do best—killing and brutalising their citizens, especially women—and the world would look the other way, as they have often done with China, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.
Coming back to Biden’s endeavour to put the entire blame on Afghans, it appears to be a desperate attempt to salvage his sagging image. The fact is, post-9/11, the Americans went to Afghanistan with the grand objective of setting things right. And even after being there for two decades and spending over $2 trillion, if the situation couldn’t improve, the US administration needs to introspect and take some blame for that, at least.
No doubt, the Americans fought a long war in Afghanistan, spent a lot of money and resources, but they went egregiously wrong in choosing the right partner. The US went to Afghanistan with Pakistan by its side. Little realising that Pakistan is an intrinsic part of the Afghan problem, not its solution. In fact, their own officials, foremost being Bruce Riedel, a former CIA officer and senior adviser to four US Presidents, including Barack Obama, have repeatedly said that the solution to the Afghan problem lies in Islamabad, and not in Kabul. But the US chose to conveniently ignore the “convoluted relationship” Pakistan has with Afghan terrorists.
The role of Saudi Arabia—another key ally of the US—is equally suspect. Just an incident, mentioned in detail by Steve Coll in his magnum opus Ghost Wars, would be enough to showcase the deep nexus between the Taliban and the Saudis, who always acted as their ideological and financial patrons. Coll writes how in 1995, Ahmed Badeeb, chief of staff to Prince Turki al-Faisal, the director of Saudi intelligence, landed at the Kandahar airport. As the plane was about to touch down, Badeeb saw a cow in the middle of the runway. His pilot pulled up suddenly, flew around, and tried again. The Taliban’s greeting party chased the cow away and the plane could finally land.
“Don’t you remember us?” a bearded young Taliban asked Badeeb, who stared at them and confessed he did not. “We were students in your school!” The Taliban explained that they had since moved Badeeb’s entire school to Kandahar. One of the graduates was Mullah Mohammed Rabbani, a senior member of the founding Taliban ruling shura and a close associate of Mullah Omar. Rabbani expressed deep gratitude to Badeeb, led him to a waiting car and drove to meet Mullah Omar in central Kandahar. Now you don’t win a war with allies like these. More so when you are face-to-face with a foe as formidable as China!
Given the constant Pakistani and Saudi support, with China and Russia standing solidly alongside the Taliban, the fate of Afghanistan seems all but sealed. One can gauge the changed scenario from the kind of reception the armed militia received from these countries. While Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan saw the Taliban takeover as “breaking the chains of slavery”, China said that it was ready to deepen “friendly and cooperative” relations with Afghanistan. As for Russia, its Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov last month called the Taliban “reasonable people”!
So, how should the international community react? “First, the international community should not walk away and abandon Afghanistan as was the case between 1996 and 2001. It must remain engaged so that there is some reminder constantly on Taliban regarding the international norms of state behaviour. Otherwise, the unbridled Taliban will turn whimsical, goaded by their advisors from Pakistan,” Ambassador Dogra says.
“Second, the global media must maintain a presence in Kabul. Third, the US should not selfishly limit its policy to saving its own nationals. It must speak and act as a leader which seeks to project collective interests of other nations as well,” he adds.
In the “post-American world”, which according to Fareed Zakaria is less about the decline of the US and more about the rise of “others” led by China, India and Russia, the world has to be prepared to see the US getting more insular and inward-looking. It will not have the resources to take costly operations, but Biden should realise that to leave a festering wound open in Afghanistan would be a long-term disaster for the US. Successive UN reports have said that terror outfits like the Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba are operating alongside the Taliban. Worse, the Taliban’s Al Qaeda connection remains as strong as ever.
In the immediate term, India may see an escalation in terror activities in Jammu & Kashmir, but sooner than later the jihadi fire would reach Washington, as it had done in 2001. And by that time it wouldn’t be easy for the Americans to douse that fire! Biden might have bought a short-term reprieve for a long-term humiliation. It’s a Faustian bargain of the scale that was last seen in 1938 when the then British Prime Minister, Neville Chamberlain, had signed a pact with Hitler to face the ignominy for—and after—life.
There’s no doubt that the Afghan leadership and army failed miserably to stop the Taliban surge. For a distant observer, it’s difficult to comprehend how an army of over three lakh soldiers failed to stop a militia of 50,000 which were roundly routed within a month when the Americans landed in Afghanistan soon after 9/11. But then Biden would be dim-witted to believe that the Afghan forces were just fighting the Taliban. They were fighting the armed militia supported and guided by Pakistan and China. It is a neo-Cold War that the Americans have lost, and Saigon-like, as many people across the world see it, they have deserted Afghanistan with all its mess.