Let me at the outset say that this is the single-most divisive and important election in modern history. Never before have we had two absolutely contrasting visions for a US election and it is going to have far reaching ramifications for not just the US but the entire world order. Donald J. Trump, the 45th and the current US President, ran as an outsider in 2016. He challenged the establishment and promised to ‘Make America Great Again’. The straight-talking real-estate billionaire somehow connected with the working class of Middle America last time around and won the election against Hillary Clinton. It was the most stunning upset in political history, predicted by only a handful, including yours truly who wrote that in an article back then. Why I said Trump would win is because I believe that the US elections are about stories and narratives more than policy and governance.
It is a gladiatorial contest between two individuals and they both try to fire their base up and influence the fence-sitters. The challenger is the former Vice President Joe Biden who has been an active politician for 47 years. Biden was Vice President to President Barack Obama. Overcoming multiple personal tragedies of losing his first wife and child to a car accident and then losing his son to cancer in 2015, Biden has always stood back up after every setback. His story resonates with the common American folks who associate empathy and kindness with Biden. It is tipped to be about Biden’s experience versus Trump’s bravado and bombastic style which fires up his base.
The elections in the US are much different from the kind we have in India. In the US, the two candidates square off against each other across the entire country. Every state in proportion of its population has a certain number of electoral votes. The one who gets the most number of votes in a state gets the entire votes of the state. So, for example if Trump gets even one extra vote than Biden in the state of Florida, he will get all 29 electoral votes of Florida. So, this ‘winner takes all’ rule makes the electoral college very interesting. There are 50 states in the US and around 40 states are almost always clearly Republican or Democrat. So even the candidates are not too keen on campaigning in these states. So in fact, the entire election is largely decided by the 10 battleground states. The most important states, I feel, are going to be Ohio (18 electoral votes), Pennsylvania (20 votes), Michigan (16 votes), Wisconsin (10 votes) and Florida (29 votes).
Many of these are the rust-belt states, the states which prospered once, being the home of many factories where the blue collar working class earned their livelihoods but are now a pale shadow of their illustrious past. Many of the factories got shut as plants were set up in Mexico and China during the last two decades. Many other jobs were lost to automation and other technological advancements. Trump taped into this anger of the working class in 2016 and blamed politicians like Hillary Clinton, Biden and Obama for this disaster. This anger still persists, however what’s different in 2020 is that people are now asking: ‘What has Trump done in the last 4 years’? His trade war with China didn’t end up well for the working class and the deficit with China also increased over the last 4 years. The Covid-19 pandemic has also washed away the gains Trump had on the economic front as the US grapples with over 200,000 deaths and record unemployment numbers. The timing couldn’t be worse for Trump as cases continue to increase. To make matters worse, Trump’s irresponsible statements with regards to masks and scientists continue to cement his ineptitude in handling the pandemic.
In the initial weeks, Trump was in denial of Covid-19. He was addressing rallies and telling people that the virus will go away by Easter. He was in denial of scientific facts and till date continues holding rallies and flouting guidelines of his own agencies. I believe that this would prove to be the Achilles’ heel of Trump’s re-election bid. However the silver lining for Trump is that his base still loves him and they still turn up in large numbers for his rallies. It is this enthusiasm factor that Trump is banking on.
Biden, on the other side, finds favour with the Left-leaning voters, courtesy him serving as Vice-President to Obama; he also happens to be known as a centrist amongst the democrats which gives him a wider base and a broader coalition of Hispanics, African Americans. Born and brought up in the working class, Biden seems to connect with the blue collar voter, a group that didn’t connect with Hillary Clinton in 2016. However, he carries the tag of a career politician, a part of the establishment or a typical politician, as Trump proclaims. Biden’s energy levels are often questioned and he is not as big a crowd puller as Trump.
The elections in the US generally revolve around four keys issues—Guns, Healthcare, Abortion, Taxes (GHAT). Trump and Biden have contrasting views on these issues. Trump is pro-life in terms of birth rights, he is pro-gun, advocates for low taxes and a free-market healthcare plan. Biden is pro-choice in terms of birth rights, he believes in some regulation and background checks on guns, stands for higher taxes but with higher benefits and advocates for an affordable healthcare plan.
From the Indian perspective, there is much to look out for this time. The vice presidential nominee from the Democrat party is Kamala Harris who has India roots. The enthusiasm amongst Indian-Americans is high and even they’re trying to understand which party they should vote for. On one side, they have Kamala Harris who could become Vice President for Biden and on the other side, they’re aware of Trump’s slant towards India.
Trump has been pro-Narendra Modi for quite some time but has done very little for India besides the awkward hugs and handshakes. He is strongly against Islamic terror and has even called out Pakistan but done little to rein in Pakistan, as it needs their help to negotiate with the Taliban in Afghanistan. Trump is also taking on China and trying to fix its accountability for the spread of Covid-19. India wants a President who voices India’s apprehensions with its neighbours and shares common aspirations of India-US trade and growth. Trump fits the bill better from an Indian point of view, but Harris as VP candidate does a balancing act for Biden.
All in all, I feel it will be a close battle that’ll go down the wire. Wearing the prediction hat after following the polls and debates, I feel Biden will edge past Trump and become the 46th President of the United States. The race will be decided by the state of Pennsylvania, which Biden will flip from Trump along with Michigan and Wisconsin, taking him past the magical 270. Having said that, don’t count Trump out. He knows how to spring up last-minute surprises and most importantly he knows how to win! Irrespective of who wins, 3 November is going to be a historic date which will impact the global order at a time when the world is confronting a pandemic, global warming and countless inter-nation disputes.
Karan Verma is a writer, entrepreneur and a prolific public speaker across B-schools. He has just come out with a book ‘Dhruv: Love Story of an Alchemist’ (Rupa). The views expressed are personal.
