Apart from the above states, Andhra Pradesh and Odisha are the other big states that will go to Assembly polls early next year before the Lok Sabha 2024 elections. For the incumbent BJP, winning the assembly elections in these crucial big states which together hold 156 Lok Sabha seats (including big states with polls in 2023) will be like a semi final for the party which has been contesting Assembly elections since 2014 as a referendum for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The party has been using the poll plank of a double-engine sarkar and Prime Minister’s governance record in several state elections. It recorded victories in states like Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, and Uttarakhand but lost crucial states like Rajasthan, Punjab, and Karnataka.
Notably, Karnataka’s loss is likely to have reverberations for the BJP across the south as the party viewed the Kannada state as its gateway to the other southern states. For the Congress, a second victory in Karnataka, after Himachal Pradesh last year, has added some wind to its wings. The party is now focusing on emulating the victorious Karnataka strategy in other states. In Rajasthan and Chattisgarh, it will contest to retain its government whereas in Madhya Pradesh, it will be fighting the incumbent BJP. In Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and Odisha, regional parties are much better placed than both the Congress and the BJP, but for the BJP, victory in Lok Sabha in these states is important if it wants to carry forward its 2019 tally into 2024.