Zelensky Blocks Russian Gas Profits, EU Prepares for Transition

Russian gas supplies to the EU will stop on Wednesday as the five-year deal between Ukraine’s Naftogaz and Russia’s Gazprom expires. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukraine would not allow Russia to “earn additional billions on our blood.” He gave the EU a year to prepare for the change.

EU Preparedness

The European Commission assured that the EU’s gas system is “resilient and flexible.” It believes there is enough capacity to handle the end of Russian gas transit through Ukraine. While Russia will still send gas to Hungary, Turkey, and Serbia via the TurkStream pipeline, this marks the end of cheap Russian gas for Europe.

Slovakia Faces the Most Impact

Slovakia is the most affected country by the change. However, the European Commission believes the overall impact will be limited due to careful planning and alternative supplies. Despite this, the situation has enormous symbolic and strategic consequences for Europe. Russia loses a major market, but President Putin claims the EU will suffer the most.

Declining Russian Gas Share in EU

Since 2021, the EU has reduced its reliance on Russian gas. By 2023, Russian gas accounted for less than 10% of EU imports, down from 40%. Some EU members, like Slovakia and Austria, still depend on Russian gas. Austria’s energy regulator has diversified its sources to prevent disruption.

Tensions with Slovakia

Ukraine’s decision to halt gas transit has caused tensions with Slovakia. Prime Minister Robert Fico, after meeting Putin, threatened to cut off electricity to Ukraine. Zelensky accused Fico of supporting Russia’s war efforts. Poland has offered to help Ukraine in case Slovakia carries out its threat.

Moldova’s Energy Crisis

Moldova, which is not in the EU, faces serious energy problems due to the halt in Russian gas transit. Moldova relies on Russian gas for electricity, including for Transnistria, a breakaway region. President Maia Sandu accused Russia of “blackmail” to destabilize her country before its 2025 elections.

EU Replaces Russian Gas with Alternatives

The EU has worked to reduce its dependence on Russian gas. It has turned to liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar and the U.S., as well as piped gas from Norway. The European Commission has set up plans to replace Ukrainian gas transit with supplies from Greece, Turkey, Romania, and Norway through new pipelines.