Four years after Myanmar’s military ousted a civilian government, the country remains locked in a brutal civil war. Despite mounting international pressure, peace prospects look bleak as fighting escalates, causing mass displacement and a deepening humanitarian crisis.

The situation remains tense politically in Myanmar with no space for negotiation between the ruling military and the opposition forces. The United Nations Development Programme claims that nearly half the population is now in poverty and the economy has experienced turmoil.

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According to the U.N. Human Rights Office, 2023 was the worst year for violence against civilians since the coup in 2021. The military, desperate to hold on to power, continued with relentless airstrikes, artillery shelling, and mass arrests, causing mass displacement. Humanitarian aid access is still blocked, making conditions for millions of people in need worse.

“After four years, it is deeply distressing to find that the situation on the ground for civilians is only getting worse by the day,” said U.N. human rights chief Volker Türk. “Even as the military’s power wanes, their atrocities and violence have expanded in scope and intensity.”

Global Condemnation and Humanitarian Crisis

The United States, United Kingdom, and European Union collectively condemned the military coup that overthrew a democratically elected government. The statement included a call for the release of Aung San Suu Kyi, the ousted leader as well as other political prisoners. The statement emphasized that the situation of humanitarian conditions is alarming, with nearly 20 million people requiring aid and 3.5 million internally displaced.

Cross-border crime, including human trafficking, drug trade, and online scams, has also soared, destabilizing Myanmar’s neighbors. “The current trajectory is not sustainable for Myanmar or the region,” the statement warned.

The Battlefield: Military Losses and Resistance Gains

The 2021 coup quickly sparked public protests into armed resistance. Ethnic minority militias and pro-democracy forces control large parts of Myanmar, whereas the military maintains key urban areas, including the capital Naypyidaw.

The Assistance Association for Political Prisoners reported that at least 6,239 people were killed and over 28,000 were arrested since the coup. Casualty figures in distant areas cannot be verified and thus are considered much higher.

Aung Thu Nyein, a communications director for the Institute for Strategy and Policy-Myanmar, described the current situation as Myanmar’s worst crisis. “What’s worse is that the sovereignty which ever-proclaimed by the military is losing, and the country’s borders could even shift,” he said.

Myanmar’s military suffered some crushing defeats in the past year. Ethnic armed groups captured towns and military bases in the northeast near the Chinese border as well as in Rakhine state. These gains chipped away at Myanmar’s armed forces’ once-strong control, marking a turning point in the resistance movement.

Ethnic militias have fought for decades for greater autonomy and are loosely aligned with the People’s Defense Force, the pro-democracy resistance group formed post-coup. Their recent victories pose a significant challenge to the military’s control.

Human Rights Violations on All Sides

Myanmar’s armed forces committed appalling war crimes extensively, and despite this fact, the United Nations Human Rights Office and Amnesty International also claim human rights violations within areas that their opposition force maintains control of. The degree of the situation of these violations, thus far is unverified but indicates that civilians across both political powers have suffered.

Election Scheme by Myanmar Army: An Elected Mock.

In an attempt to legitimize its rule, Myanmar’s military government has promised elections this year. Critics, however, claim that such elections would lack credibility due to the wide-scale repression of people. Many opposition leaders are still behind bars, and civil rights are highly restricted.

The military extended the state of emergency on Friday for six more months to restore stability ahead of the elections. State-run MRTV gave no date for the polls.

Tom Andrews, a U.N. human rights office special rapporteur, labeled the election plans as fraudulent. “Governments should dismiss these plans for what they are – a fraud,” he said. “It isn’t possible to hold a legitimate election while arresting, detaining, torturing, and executing leaders of the opposition and when it is illegal for journalists or citizens to criticize the military government.”

Uncertain Future for Myanmar

Entering the fifth year under military rule, the situation for Myanmar is getting worse. Losing control, the military has to increase violence at a time when resistance forces seem to be advancing. Millions in the country face humanitarian needs while the economy teeters on a freefall decline.

International condemnation and growing opposition notwithstanding, Myanmar’s military is yet to give up power. Be it armed conflict or political machinations, Myanmar’s crisis is far from over.