Is this an election without a wave ? In fact the only wave in this election seems to be the heat wave rather than an overwhelming surge in favour of any one candidate or party. The dominant figure in the elections continues to be Prime Minister, Narendra Modi; the entire election is being fought on the promise of his guarantee with the Congress questioning his deliverables and the BJP tomtomming them. The BJP posters all have one figure up front – that of Modi himself with the candidates standing somewhat sheepishly in the background. It is telling it like it is for Modi is indeed the dominant issue. But what is missing is the groundswell of vocal support for the Prime Minister. The BJP will still probably win these elections but it may not get the abki baar 400 paar figure that the PM is hoping for. Part of it is of course election rhetoric, but there is also a part of Amit Shah’s strategy that is working on making this statement come true. The BJP despite its many triumphs cannot claim to have the highest number of MPs in a Lok Sabha. That bragging right remains with the Congress when it trounced back to power post Indira Gandhi’s assasination in 1984. At the time, Rajiv Gandhi became Prime Minister in 1985 with the Congress crossing the 400 mark.
The Opposition particularly the Congress has come up with a manifesto that focuses on issues of jobs, employment and reservations. If it stands a chance of winning, the election too should be fought on the same rhetoric, leaving the personality of the prime minister out of it. For when Modi becomes the issue, that is a narrative that the PM knows all too well how to control, specially if he is being victimised by the Opposition. Which could be one reason that close to the second wave the Prime Minister has ensured that he is once more in focus. Much is being said about his speech against the minority community, both on social media and the campaign trail. And once again the election rhetoric has shifted to community and religion, instead of jobs and caste census. By reacting so strongly against the PM’s provocative statements, the Opposition is falling into the BJP’s trap. This is exactly what the BJP wants – for Modi to become the centre of the election narrative. The more he is targeted the more the BJP cadres will claim victimhood and rally the party faithful to come out strongly in his support and vote for him, despite the heat wave.
Because the heat wave and the consequent low turnout is a worrying issue for the BJP. This is one way of motivating the BJP’s supporters to ensure that the party faithful keep their tryst with the ballot box.