It’s not just the Congress that seems to be facing an existential crisis but even the rest of the UPA — or whatever name the non-BJP parties want to call itself — hasn’t quite got its act together. Except perhaps Mamata Bannerjee, the feisty Chief Minister of West Bengal, who is perhaps the “last man standing” to take on the BJP.
First, let’s talk about Bihar which will host the next big political test, for elections are due year-end. Given the rising cases of Covid in the state, one is not sure if the elections will proceed as planned, but assuming they do, the ruling JD(U) and BJP coalition seems all set for a comeback. As of now. In fact, there are those who will give the BJP more seats than the JD(U), putting a question mark over Nitish Kumar’s return as CM. It’s ironic that gains from the anti-incumbency against Nitish Kumar’s Covid mishandling are going to the BJP, and not the opposition in the state.
One reason for this is that RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav was largely missing in action during Covid. When Nitish Kumar was mismanaging the entire migrant workers issue down to even sparring with Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal as to who will bear the cost of bus fares, the RJD leader was nowhere in sight. Given the fact that he also went missing for over a month after the Lok Sabha results came in last May, his own allies are questioning his leadership. Jitan Ram Manjhi of the HAM, for one, thinks he would make a better candidate than the young Yadav. And recently even Shakti Singh Gohil of the Congress was heard commenting that first the Mahagathbandhan had to form a coordination committee and only then would the CM face be decided.
Cleary, trouble in paradise despite the bromance between Rahul Gandhi and Tejashwi Yadav. More worrying for Lalu Prasad’s heir apparent of course would be the fact that some of his own party MLAs have begun sending overtures to the JD(U). And in an apparent bid to reinvent himself, Tejashwi recently apologised for the mistakes of his parents. It could be a blatant bid to woo the upper caste voters who were alienated during the Lalu-Rabri era.
Apart from Tejashwi in Bihar, the state of Uttar Pradesh (which goes to polls in 2022) is equally fragmented. One thing is clear — there will be no grand alliance against the BJP. Akhilesh Yadav, the Samajwadi Party chief, categorically ruled it out in a conversation with me recently. He pointed out that the Congress had put up his posters with the word “Missing” underneath his picture in his constituency and wondered how the Congress planned to retain Rae Bareli without the SP’s help.
Another miffed ally is Omar Abdullah. The National Conference leader wasn’t amused when Chhattisgarh CM Bhupesh Baghel tried to link Omar and Farooq’s release from being detained under the PSA to the fact that they were Sachin Pilot’s in-laws. Omar has since announced on Twitter that he would take this matter to court.
As for the NCP, it may be a coalition partner with the Congress running a government in Maharashtra but more than once the two have differed — as recently as Sharad Pawar cautioning Rahul Gandhi over questioning PM Modi on China.
Moreover, don’t forget the sparring between Arvind Kejriwal and the Delhi Congress leaders, the on-off bonhomie between Mamata Bannerjee and the local Congressmen. All in all, with the unrest within, how can the Opposition give the BJP a united fight?