Samajwadi Party boss and former Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister, Akhilesh Yadav is not amused with the statements made by the State Congress Chief Ajay Rai that the grand old party was preparing to put up nominees in all the 80 seats for the forthcoming Lok Sabha polls. Rai had earlier questioned the wisdom of the Samajwadi Party in fielding a nominee against the official congress candidate in Uttrakhand, and its attempts to weaken the Congress in Madhya Pradesh where it has no say or stakes.
This despite the fact that the Congress had supported the SP fully during the by-election to Ghosi. Akhilesh reacted sharply to Rai’s assertions and maintained that the Congress needed to make its stand clear whether it wanted to have cooperation with his organization as part of the understanding reached at the meetings of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA).
He was unsure whether the Congress would be able to identify too many seats where its nominees could win in a Parliamentary poll. This was a dig the SP supremo had at the Congress leadership since the party has only one seat (Rae Bareilly) in the current Parliament and its chances of winning in the State are considered bleak, given that there is no organizational network, and the Gandhis are losing their charm with each passing day.
In 2019, Rahul Gandhi had been defeated from the family bastion of Amethi by union minister Smriti Irani and it is unlikely that either he or Priyanka Gandhi Vadra would be able to win the seat back from the BJP. Even Akhilesh’s overall position in UP is not very sound and the Samajwadi Party has to do much more, if it has to wrest seats from the BJP during the Parliamentary confrontation.
In fact, after Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh is the strongest BJP state and whether one likes it or not, there is wide acceptance for Yogi Adityanath’s leadership. The general belief is that the current Chief Minister, the first in the States’s history to have been re-elected, has made UP, far safer than it ever was, and was likely to virtually repeat the BJP’s performance in the Lok Sabha election.
This is regardless of the fact whether the INDIA alliance partners work out things amongst themselves or enter the fray separately. Many political analysts also are of the view that the BJP may not be able to replicate its performance in all the States, but so far as UP and Gujarat are concerned, it shall fare very well from all accounts. Although Ajay Rai is a five-time MLA, he should realise that it was not the time to have a sparring match with allies, who are much stronger.
There are reports that the Congress may retain Rae Bareilly, because there has been a secret understanding the party has reached with Mayawati. However, this was not going to be sufficient. Unless and until, the Congress gets into double digits in India’s largest state, its chances of making a comeback nationally would always be bleak.
The Hindi heartland is where the Congress needs to improve its performance to be a contender for the top spot, which has been eluding it for the past two polls. Yes, it is true that the differences amongst INDIA partners have surfaced during the Assembly polls which shall be held in November.
The Congress and the BJP are facing each other in three States and other allies must not play spoilers by fielding candidates there since they are marginal players and therefore should honour the spirit of the coalition of helping each other. The best news for the alliance partners would be if the BJP is humbled not only in these three states but also in Telangana and Mizoram. The outcome would have an impact on the Lok Sabha polls and may provide a psychological advantage to the INDIA partners nationally.
However, what needs to be seen is that the partners have many contradictions and none of them would want the Congress to be stronger again. A weak Congress suits them more than a weak BJP since most of the allies have at some stage or the other been partners of the BJP as well but were occupying the space which Congress once held.
This is the reason, why the Congress leadership in general and Mallikarjun Kharge in particular must ensure that state leaders do not speak out of turn and try and adjust with the partners in the larger interests of the alliance. It is also anticipated that the INDIA alliance may develop cracks closer to the polls, and three leaders who could play a role in widening them would possibly be Nitish Kumar, Arvind Kejriwal and Sharad Pawar.
And if Akhilesh Yadav was to join them, the alliance would collapse prematurely. In UP, the Congress cannot regain its lost ground, till its traditional vote bank of Brahmins, Dalits and Muslims comes back in its fold. This is unlikely to happen and instead of wooing these three segments, some party leaders are surprisingly talking about OBC politics, knowing fully well that by and large, the OBCs have always been against the Congress.
It is very important that for INDIA alliance to move forward, the partners need to strengthen the perception regarding the common intent, and work toward the objective instead of publicly differing on minor issues. Perception sometimes help, whatever be the reality.