The decision of the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) to sever its links with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is not only going to impact politics in Punjab but in neighbouring Haryana as well. The Akalis were amongst the oldest partners of the BJP, an association described by former Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal as “Nau Maas da rishta” (A relationship that is as close as the nail and the skin). Therefore, it was unthinkable that the party would break its bond with the saffron brigade with whose help, it had returned to power, both in 2007 and 2012. There are 23 Hindudominated seats in Punjab which the Congress used to earlier win. But in those two crucial elections of 2007 and 2012, the Congress performed very poorly on these seats and allowed the BJP to consolidate its position. The Akalis on their own were short of numbers and it was because of the seats won by the BJP that the alliance was able to successfully form the government.
The relationship between the two parties has been strained and it was only political compulsions that kept them together. A section of the BJP wanted this partnership to end so that the BJP could grow and contest all the seats. Navjot Singh Sidhu, who was with the BJP at that point of time, was viewed as a possible chief ministerial nominee. Now that the BJP is not under any obligation to appease its erstwhile ally, Sidhu could well be on his way back, given that he has been marginalised in Punjab politics by Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh. The Congress High Command has been urging the CM to speak to Sidhu to sort out matters, but Amarinder seems adamant. However, the separation of the two parties has further weakened the Akalis who are also facing dissent from within.
The Badals, who have been in control of the party since many years, are believed to have acted solely because they feared that their continuation in the NDA would have further damaged their interests. It is a well-known fact that the Badals and the Chautala family have very close links. Thus, it would not be surprising if pressure is mounted on Dushyant Chautala to leave the Haryana Cabinet and come out in the open against the farm bills. The BJP is understood to have taken the required precautions, and if Dushyant decides to leave, he could face the prospect of losing some of his MLAs, who could switch over to the BJP.
The complex developments that could have far-reaching ramifications could usher in a period of instability in Haryana with the Jats taking to streets. Speculation has already begun in Punjab that Amarinder could use the opportunity to strengthen his own position and consider holding Assembly elections one year before they are due. This would certainly be a folly and the Congress which has the advantage as of now, may surrender it, if the polls were held early, given that a lot of promises are still to be fulfilled.
