The Aam Aadmi Party’s (AAP) Gujarat state president Isudan Gadhvi’s announcement of contesting the 2024 Lok Sabha elections with the Congress party has created panic even in his own party’s high command. In a “big announcement” on Monday Gadhvi stated that the AAP would contest the 2024 Lok Sabha elections under the INDIA bloc with the Congress. Gadhvi has reportedly been reprimanded by party high command for making the announcement in haste.
In the 2022 Assembly elections, the AAP fielded candidates on all seats, but managed to win only five. The AAP, however, made a dent in Congress’ votes; the party won 79 seats in 2017 but was reduced to 17 seats in 2022. Surprisingly, during the 2022 Assembly elections, the AAP was widely considered as the BJP’s B team by Congress leaders—now there is a discussion in political circles that the party is now the Congress B team. In 2022, the BJP won 156 of 182 seats in the Assembly. The Opposition vote was divided between the Congress and the AAP, increasing the BJP’s vote share. The party got three percent more votes compared to 2017—it won 99 seats in 2017 with a vote share of 49.1%. In 2022 the party won 156 seats with 52.50% votes. The Congress and AAP’s vote shares were 27.28% and 12.92% respectively. A direct decrease of 14.16 was registered in the vote share of Congress. Seeing Congress’ weakening position, it is believed that many voted for BJP as they did not want to vote for AAP.
In 2014, BJP got 59.1% votes in the Lok Sabha which increased to 62.21% in 2019. Whereas, Congress got 32.9% and 32.11% votes in 2019. However, the Congress did not get a single seat in both elections. If parties are to contest under the INDIA banner, it will be implemented in Gujarat as well, but the AAP’s announcement was a bit premature, since it has around 13 percent votes. Contesting together might make a difference but it depends more on the strategy employed. The BJP is not only strong, it is also better at management and strategy.
In the last Assembly elections, Congress and AAP influence was not seen in urban areas except Surat. The synergy between the two might trouble the BJP in rural areas. AAP’s friendship with Congress has both advantages and disadvantages. Till now AAP has been claiming to be different from both the parties in the state. If there is an alliance, then its credibility comes into question. Apart from this, the leaders have made contentious statements about each other in the past—this might cause a lot of trouble in the election environment. Analysts say that there is no doubt that the BJP is strong, but the alliance might pose a challenge over five or six seats. If both parties fight separately, then the walkover-like situation for the BJP will end.
The biggest challenge will be how the Gujarat Congress leaders treat the alliance and whether they will be ready to give up their seats. At present, there is no challenge for the BJP in