The shifting dynamics of South Asia have increasingly drawn global attention to the covert operations orchestrated by Sino-Pakistani alliances. Of particular concern is their role in strengthening the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), an insurgent group operating in Bangladesh and Myanmar. The activities of this nexus have far-reaching implications for India’s national security, demanding a nuanced and comprehensive response.
Background on ARSA and Its Operations
ARSA, formerly known as Harakah al-Yaqin, has emerged as an armed insurgent group claiming to defend the rights of the Rohingya Muslim minority in Myanmar’s Rakhine State. Despite its stated objectives, ARSA’s operations have frequently aligned with extremist ideologies. The group has been linked to attacks on Myanmar’s military and police installations, triggering large-scale crackdowns and exacerbating the Rohingya refugee crisis in neighboring Bangladesh.
Recent intelligence reports reveal ARSA’s growing influence within the Rohingya camps in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh. Through violence and intimidation, the group has established recruitment networks and turned refugee camps like Tambru’s Konapara into operational hubs for arms smuggling, training, and drug trafficking, particularly the yaba trade. These activities have made the camps focal points of both regional instability and transnational crime.
Pakistan’s Role: Historical and Strategic Context
Pakistan’s history of supporting extremist groups through its Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is well-documented. Extending this strategy to ARSA serves multiple objectives:
1. Destabilizing India’s Northeast: By fostering instability in Myanmar and Bangladesh, Pakistan indirectly threatens India’s already insurgency-prone northeastern states.
2. Undermining Bangladesh: With lingering animosity from the 1971 Liberation War, Pakistan exploits existing fault lines in Bangladesh to destabilize the region.
3. Championing Islamic Solidarity: ARSA’s operations allow Pakistan to present itself as a defender of Muslim causes, strengthening its influence over jihadist networks.
Reports suggest that ARSA has received training from groups like Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Furthermore, videos of joint training sessions with Jama’atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) underline Pakistan’s role in fostering regional extremist collaborations.
China’s Role in the Equation
China’s involvement in ARSA’s activities is more nuanced but equally significant. As part of its geopolitical strategy, China leverages ARSA to advance its regional objectives:
1. Maintaining Leverage Over Myanmar: Myanmar’s geostrategic location is critical for China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and access to the Bay of Bengal. Supporting ARSA indirectly provides China leverage over Naypyidaw.
2. Countering India: By fomenting unrest in India’s periphery, China diverts New Delhi’s focus from broader strategic competition.
3. Influencing Bangladesh: China’s growing economic and political footprint in Bangladesh aligns with its support for ARSA to ensure a pliable regime in Dhaka.
Evidence of the Sino-Pakistan-ARSA Nexus
The nexus between China, Pakistan, and ARSA is underscored by:
1. Arms Supply Chains: Chinese-manufactured arms often reach ARSA through Pakistani intermediaries. These weapons are smuggled via the Bay of Bengal and porous borders in Bangladesh and Myanmar.
2. Funding Networks: ARSA’s finances are traced to Pakistani charities with links to jihadist organizations, some operating under tacit Chinese approval. Informal banking channels in Rohingya refugee camps also funnel money to ARSA.
3. Training Camps: ARSA operatives reportedly receive training in camps facilitated by Pakistani handlers, with logistical support from Chinese entities.
Impact on India’s National Security
The activities of the Sino-Pakistan-ARSA nexus pose a multi-dimensional threat to India’s national security:
1. Destabilization of the Northeast: ARSA’s operations in Myanmar and refugee influx into India’s northeastern states worsen regional instability. Some local insurgent groups have also aligned ideologically with ARSA, complicating the security scenario.
2. Terrorist Infiltration: Northeastern states report instances of arms and militants linked to Myanmar-based insurgents, some suspected of having ties to ARSA.
3. Economic Disruption: Instability in the Bay of Bengal threatens India’s maritime security and trade routes. ARSA’s involvement in the yaba trade poses further risks to India’s trade ambitions in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).
4. Geopolitical Challenges: The Sino-Pakistan strategy undermines India’s Act East Policy by destabilizing its relationships with Myanmar and Bangladesh
India’s Strategic Response
To counter these threats, India must adopt a multi-pronged strategy that includes diplomacy, military preparedness, and regional collaboration.
1. Strengthening Regional Alliances: India must deepen its engagement with Myanmar to counter the destabilizing effects of tensions with Bangladesh. A closer partnership with Myanmar can help India mitigate Chinese influence and neutralize ARSA’s activities.
2. Border Management: Securing India’s borders with Myanmar and Bangladesh is critical. Upgrading surveillance systems, deploying additional forces, and improving border infrastructure are necessary to prevent infiltration, arms smuggling, and illicit trade.
3. Countering Radicalization: India should collaborate with regional governments to dismantle ARSA’s recruitment networks. Community-based programs and counter-radicalization initiatives, particularly in vulnerable areas like Kerala, can address the root causes of extremism.
4. Leveraging International Platforms: India must raise the Sino-Pakistan-ARSA nexus on global platforms like the United Nations and BIMSTEC. Framing the issue as a global concern can increase international pressure on Beijing and Islamabad to curb their support for ARSA.
5. Naval Vigilance in the Bay of Bengal: Enhanced naval capabilities and regular patrols in the Bay of Bengal are vital for disrupting arms smuggling networks and securing maritime routes. These efforts would also help India counter Chinese and Pakistani influence in the region.
6. Cyber and Financial Countermeasures: Identifying and dismantling ARSA’s financial and online propaganda networks is crucial. By collaborating with international regulators, India can disrupt ARSA’s funding and recruitment channels.
The Role of Strategic and Backdoor Diplomacy
1. Proactive Diplomacy with Bangladesh: Despite current tensions, India must engage Dhaka through high-level diplomatic channels to secure its cooperation in dismantling ARSA networks.
2. Engagement with Myanmar: India should leverage Myanmar’s dependence on Indian economic and security support to align Naypyidaw against ARSA. Backdoor negotiations and intelligence-sharing initiatives can further this goal.
3. Regional Consensus-Building: India should foster regional collaboration by bringing Bangladesh and Myanmar together to address the ARSA threat collectively. BIMSTEC can serve as a platform for this effort.
4. Strategic Leverage over China and Pakistan: Using global platforms, India can expose China’s role in destabilizing South Asia and diplomatically isolate Pakistan. Simultaneously, India should explore backdoor channels to reduce Chinese interference by leveraging economic interdependencies.
Conclusion
The Sino-Pakistan-ARSA nexus represents a calculated strategy to undermine regional stability and counter India’s growing influence. ARSA’s reliance on arms smuggling, drug trafficking, and extremist networks underscores the complexity of the threat.
India’s response must be holistic, encompassing robust diplomacy, enhanced security measures, and proactive regional engagement. By combining strategic diplomacy with military preparedness, India can safeguard its national security and foster stability in South Asia.
Prof. (Dr.) Nishakant Ojha, Eminent Expert in Counterterrorism & International Foreign Diplomacy
