Elon Musk has issued a stark warning about Singapore’s dwindling Total Fertility Rate (TFR), which hit a historic low of 0.97 in 2023, falling below 1.0 for the first time. His concern highlights a global trend of declining birth rates, especially in countries like South Korea, Japan, China, and even India.
Singapore’s Fertility Crisis
TFR measures the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her lifetime. Singapore’s 2023 TFR of 0.97 is far below the 2.1 replacement rate needed for population stability. The nation also faces an aging population, with the UN projecting that 24% of its residents will be senior citizens by 2030, mirroring Japan’s “super-aged society” status.
The Ministry of Manpower has acknowledged the challenge, stating that “slowing resident population growth and ageing… will lead to tightening manpower constraints.” They stressed the importance of foreign workers and investments to sustain job opportunities.
Musk’s Concern
Responding to a discussion about Singapore’s fertility issues and the role of robotics, Musk commented, “Singapore (and many other countries) are going extinct.”
Singapore (and many other countries) are going extinct https://t.co/YORyakBynm
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 5, 2024
Why Are Birth Rates Falling?
According to government officials, the pandemic disrupted marriage and parenthood plans, while financial concerns, parenting pressures, and work-life imbalances deterred couples from having children. Many young people now prioritize other life goals over marriage and parenthood.
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The implications are severe, with smaller families and a shrinking workforce impacting economic growth and global competitiveness. Similar trends in South Korea and Italy have led to economic stagnation and demographic crises.
Robotics as a Solution
Singapore ranks second globally in robot density, with innovations like robo-cleaners and robo-dogs helping mitigate labour shortages. Musk sees robotics as a viable solution for countries grappling with demographic challenges.
Regional Fertility Concerns
South Korea’s fertility rate dropped to 0.72 in 2023, and its population could shrink by two-thirds by 2100. China and Japan also face historic lows of 1.09 and 1.26, respectively, with deaths outpacing births.
While Singapore’s use of robotics offers a temporary reprieve, Musk’s warning emphasizes the urgency of addressing the root causes of falling birth rates.
