Himachal Pradesh has been experiencing a prolonged dry spell over the past two months, with October and November recording significantly deficient rainfall. According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), this marks one of the driest Novembers in recent years, with the last comparable instance occurring in 2016, when no rainfall was recorded across any observatory in the state.
Kuldeep Srivastava, head of IMD Himachal Pradesh, highlighted the parallels between the current dry spell and the 2016 scenario. “Our records from 2016 show that none of the observatories reported normal rainfall during that November. This year is shaping up similarly, with the state remaining mostly dry. The upcoming forecast also indicates no significant rainfall over the next three to five days,” said Dr. Srivastava.
While the forecast includes the possibility of light rainfall on November 23 in higher-altitude areas like Lahaul-Spiti, Chamba, and parts of Kangra, the impact of the current western disturbances remains minimal. The overall weather across the state is expected to stay clear and sunny during the day, with temperatures dropping further after sunset.
Himachal Pradesh relies heavily on western disturbances for winter precipitation, which spans from November to April. However, the disturbances this season have been weak, with limited influence on the region. Dr. Srivastava elaborated: “The western disturbances currently affecting Himachal Pradesh are quite feeble, and their impact is confined to select high-altitude regions. This explains why the state has experienced prolonged dryness. There are no signs of significant rainfall in the near future.”
The lack of precipitation has resulted in a noticeable drop in temperatures. Over the past 20 days, temperatures in Shimla and other regions have fallen by up to 7 degrees Celsius. As winter sets in, further temperature declines are expected. While daytime conditions are likely to remain sunny, foggy conditions are anticipated around Bhakra Dam and nearby areas such as Bilaspur and Hamirpur on November 24 and 25 due to moisture availability following the minor western disturbance on November 23.
“This dry November is a rare occurrence. Such conditions haven’t been observed since 2016. The lower Himalayan regions, which are typically influenced by western disturbances, have experienced very little precipitation,” Dr. Srivastava noted.
As the state braces for more dry days, the IMD emphasizes the critical role of strong western disturbances in breaking the ongoing dry spell. Until then, Himachal Pradesh is expected to remain mostly dry, with occasional fog and temperature fluctuations marking the transition into the colder months.
