As the 2024 U.S. Presidential election approaches, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris is gaining traction in three critical Rust Belt swing states—Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. However, while Harris currently holds a lead over former President Donald Trump, her margins in these states are narrowing.
Harris’s Lead in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania
According to a recent poll by the Bullfinch group, Kamala Harris is seeing her largest lead in Michigan, where she is ahead of Donald Trump by around 8 points. Even when third-party candidates are included in the poll, Harris’s lead in Michigan remains strong.
In contrast, her advantage in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania is much tighter. In Wisconsin, Harris leads Trump by just 3 points in a direct matchup, and the margin shrinks to 2 points when third-party candidates are factored in.
In Pennsylvania, the race is nearly tied, with Harris holding a razor-thin lead of just 1 point when third-party candidates are included.
Polling Data and Margins of Error
The poll, conducted with around 1,800 likely voters, carries a margin of error of ±4 points, meaning that Harris’s lead could be even narrower than reported. The poll results were reported by Newsweek, which noted that these states could be pivotal in determining the 2024 election outcome.
Declining Polling Figures
Despite her current leads in the Rust Belt, Kamala Harris’s overall polling numbers have been slipping. According to FiveThirtyEight’s tracker, her margins have significantly diminished since September. Harris’s lead is now down to just 0.6 points in Michigan and only 0.1 points in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, with Trump gaining momentum in these battleground states.
Can Kamala Harris Hold On to These Swing States?
While Harris remains ahead, the narrowing gap suggests that her campaign may face challenges as Election Day approaches. With tight margins and the inclusion of third-party candidates making the race even more competitive, securing a victory in these key Rust Belt states is far from guaranteed. All eyes will be on Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania as the race heats up.
