Kamala Harris is gaining momentum in the US presidential election as recent polls show her either leading or closing the gap with Donald Trump. According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris is up by 2.1 points over Trump in the national average. In critical battleground states, Harris leads by 2 points in Michigan, 1.1 points in Pennsylvania, and 1.8 points in Wisconsin. Meanwhile, Trump holds a narrow lead in Arizona and Georgia.
In states where polling data is limited, Trump is ahead by about three points in North Carolina, and Nevada is closely contested, with recent polls showing Harris with a lead ranging from two to six points.
Harris’s surge follows Joe Biden’s decision to step aside for a younger candidate. Since Biden’s endorsement of Harris, there has been a notable shift in the polls, with some battleground states like Georgia and Nevada becoming more competitive. The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball have both adjusted their ratings, with some states moving from “leans Republican” to “toss-up.”
Despite these gains, Harris faces challenges. Her choice of Tim Walz as vice-presidential running mate over other potential candidates, such as Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, has sparked debate. Some analysts argue that Walz’s extensive experience in various political roles strengthens the ticket, while others suggest that Shapiro might have offered more strategic advantages.
Polls reflect varying results: Harris leads by two points in the Economist/YouGov survey and by five points in the Reuters/Ipsos poll. A Marquette University poll shows Harris with a six-point lead in Wisconsin. Enthusiasm among Democratic voters has increased, narrowing the enthusiasm gap previously favouring Republicans. However, a CNBC poll indicates that Trump is still perceived as the candidate who would better handle financial issues.
Overall, while Harris is making significant inroads, the election remains highly competitive, with Trump maintaining a strong campaign presence.
