The first session of the 18th Lok Sabha will begin from June 24. With the beginning of the session, the challenges of Modi Government 3:0 will also begin. If the challenges are handled properly, challenges can be converted into opportunities. This time the opposition is in a strong position. The opposition was limited to 91 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, this time in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the opposition i.e. INDI Alliance is in a strong position with 234 seats. The first challenge before the NDA is regarding the selection & election of the Speaker and Deputy Speaker. In the past, the post of Speaker has been given to the largest party of the ruling coalition. In this regard, it is almost certain that BJP will get this post. However, there have been exceptions to this tradition. Due to the compulsions of the coalition government, the post of Speaker has also been with other allies of the alliance. This time, the two biggest allies of the NDA, JDU and TDP, have not indicated any such condition and are also not in a position to indicate any such condition. Out of 293 seats of NDA, 240 seats belong to BJP, hence it is expected that BJP will easily get the post of Speaker. There is a problem regarding the post of Deputy Speaker. It is more likely that the post of Deputy Speaker can be given to NDA. Modi 3:0 faces many challenges, out of which some important challenges, can be turned into opportunities are as follows-
Economic development for developed India
It is very challenging to manage the expenditure of lakhs of crores of rupees in economic development, welfare schemes and subsidies simultaneously. The question is of priority. For inclusive and holistic development, the government will have to be very sensitive towards the poor, at the same time it will have the responsibility to accelerate the pace of economic development. A glimpse of this will be reflected in the full budget of the coming July month. The government has expressed its commitment to see India as a developed country in the coming 23 years, till 2047, which seems to be coming true. Despite the challenges, if the country continues to move forward on the path of progress in this way, India can join group of developed countries before 2047. For the last three years, the GDP growth rate has been between 7 to 8.5 percent, which is a record in itself. In the financial year 2023-24, the GDP growth rate was 8.2 percent. The Government of India has a target of $2 trillion exports by the year 2030. In a few years, India will become the third largest economy in the world, leaving behind Japan and Germany. It is estimated that India can have an economy of $5 trillion by the year 2026 and $10 trillion by 2030.
Uniform Civil Code
Uniform Civil Code has been on the BJP’s agenda since 1950. In this Lok Sabha election too, Uniform Civil Code was one of the major resolutions of the BJP’s manifesto. Governments of many states have started to work on it. This resolution can be fulfilled only when there is harmony varius fractions of NDA as well as mutual consensus among the opposition parties. The role of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, Defense Minister Rajnath Singh and Parliamentary Affairs Minister Kiren Rijiju will be important in this regard. It may take months to build a consensus. If the Uniform Civil Code is implemented in the country, it will be a great achievement for the government, BJP and NDA.
One Nation,
One Election
Under One Nation One Election, elections to the Lok Sabha and all the Legislative Assemblies are held simultaneously. This tradition continued in the country till 1951-52, 1957, 1962, and 1967. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been in favor of One Nation One Election for years. He had also raised this issue while being the Chief Minister of Gujarat. The concept of One Nation One Election was also quoted in the BJP’s manifesto for the 2024 Loksabha elections. Home Minister Amit Shah had repeatedly reiterated the resolution of One Nation One Election in election speeches and made it clear that the government would work on One Nation One Election if the BJP government is formed. One Nation One Election can be ensured only through constitutional amendment, for which consensus among all parties is necessary. There are many benefits of One Nation One Election. According to an estimate, about Rs 10 lakh crore is spent from local elections to Lok Sabha elections, if all the assembly elections are held along with the Lok Sabha, about Rs 5 lakh crore of the country can be saved. Wastage of election machinery will stop. Economic development will be promoted. Elections keep happening somewhere or the other throughout the year. Due to the implementation of the code of conduct, there is a delay in taking decisions in the interest of the public, which has an adverse effect on the public and development of country.
Balanced, Development-oriented budget
The development of the country is linked with the development of 140 crore people. At this time, an inclusive, balanced and development-oriented budget is the imperative of the country. Increasing the income of the country is necessary, at the same time, it is imperative to curb expenses. Nirmala Sitharaman’s work as Finance Minister in Modi Government 2.0 was commendable. It is expected that Nirmala Sitharaman’s work as Finance Minister in Modi Government 3.0 will be excellent. The interim budget for 2024-25 was of Rs 47.66 lakh crore. For the coming year, the total income was estimated to be Rs 31 lakh crore and the total expenditure was estimated to be Rs 48 lakh crore, in which the income from tax was estimated to be around Rs 26 lakh crore. The full budget will come next month in July, which may be more than Rs 50 lakh crore. The budget should meet the hopes and aspirations of the poor as well as promote the pace of economic development.
Increase in Farmer’s Income
Certainly, the income of farmers has increased in the last 10 years, but the income growth is not as expected. Farmers should get the real price of their crops, for this it is very important to keep a check on the middlemen. The money that should go the farmers is going the middlemen. The middlemen are rich and the farmers are in distress. Kisan Samman Nidhi is an excellent scheme of the government, which is benefiting the farmers and there has been a favorable improvement in the living standards of the farmers. Necessary amendments should be made in the farm laws and must be implemented as soon as possible so that the income of the farmers increases as expected.
Inflation and Unemployment
Inflation was a major issue in the 2024 general elections, continuously raised by the opposition. After studying inflation data of the last 10 years, except for a few years, the inflation rate has mostly remained under control. Inflation is a continuous process. Inflation rate of 3 to 5 percent is beneficial in any economy. Inflation rate was 4.75 percent in May 2024, which is completely controlled. The government will have to ensure that there is no disruption in the supply of essential commodities and there is no black marketing of it. Unemployment is a major problem in India. The main reason for this is the desire for a government job and the lack of necessary skills. After the implementation of the new education policy, we will see a significant reduction in the unemployment rate. We should also not forget that we are the most populous country in the world.
Global Trade and Improvement of Infrastructure
During the last 10 years, exports have increased as expected. This year the total exports are $778 billion, which is likely to be $900 billion next year. The Government of India has set a target of $2 trillion exports by the year 2030, which looks quite possible. In the last 10 years, defense exports have increased by 2300 percent, which is a record in itself. The government has increased the capital expenditure on infrastructure by 540 percent in the last 10 years. In the last 10 years, the Modi government has spent about 45 lakh crore rupees on infrastructure, as a result of which there has been a lot of improvement in infrastructure. This improvement needs to be taken forward so that the country’s infrastructure system can become of world-class.
Education with Cultural Values
Despite having thousands of universities, the biggest problem in India today is the employment-oriented education system with cultural values. Most Indian students are lacking required knowledge and skills despite having degrees. Education should be based on the Indian education system in which special attention should be given to Indian languages, especially Hindi, regional languages and Sanskrit as medium of instruction. Whether it is engineering or management, technology or science, if their curriculum and medium of instruction is Hindi instead of English, students will learn comprehensively. By including ancient Indian knowledge in higher education, students will not only be aware of values and ethics but their knowledge and skills will also increase. Attention has been given to these matters in the NEP and it’s implementation.
Anti-conversion Laws and Cultural Security
There is nothing like conversion in Indian tradition and philosophy. Indian culture is based on correction and conversation, not conversion. In this culture, emphasis is laid on transformation, not transfer. There are constant reports of conversions in the country, which is unacceptable in a democracy. No one can be forced to convert by luring or through pressure. This is a disregard for humanity and the Constitution. The central government should bring a strict anti-conversion law so that the country and the countrymen can get cultural and religious security. Cultural development is very important for the economic and social development of any country. Indian culture is linked to the Sanskrit language, so the Government of India should pay special attention to the promotion of Sanskrit language. The influence of foreign culture is constantly increasing, having negative impact on the youth. Cultural and religious security is possible only with a strict anti-conversion law.
Foreign Policy
There is a relationship between foreign policy and international trade. Whether the country’s relations with other countries will be good or bad depends on the foreign policy. India’s foreign policy has been very effective in the last 10 years. India’s strategic and trade relations are good with almost all the countries of the world except few countries. As a result, foreign trade is increasing continuously. One of the main reasons for the strengthening of the Indian economy is its successful foreign policy.
Prof. Dr. Vivek Singh, Professor – ASMSOC – NMIMS University, Economist and Political Analyst
