Verdict 2024 has something for everyone. But big credit should go to Rahul Gandhi, Akhilesh Yadav, Uddhav Thackeray, Mamata Banerjee and Sharad Pawar. Together they provided a lot of strength to I.N.D.I.A bloc has given Narendra Modi, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and a section of hawkish media shivers down their spine. But the opposition would have reasons to reflect and think “What if” they had done more?
The Congress and I.N.D.I.A bloc must be rueing over the missed opportunities in the 2024 election particularly in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha where tacit or tactical alliances were not made. In Odisha, Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar when part of I.N.D.I.A bloc then, had paid a visit to Bhubaneshwar requesting Naveen Patnaik to join the alliance. Still, after Kumar defected to NDA, negotiations were not followed up with the Biju Janata Dal (BJD). By the time results came out, the BJP-NDA gained the bulk of seats from the state, bringing them closer to the working majority.
In coalition politics since the 1980s, Andhra Pradesh and Telugu Desam Party (TDP) have played a historic and crucial role. In 1984, the TDP was the single largest opposition party in the Lok Sabha. Actor turned politician and Chandrababu Naidu’s father-in-law, N T Ramarao became the National Front convenor and helped Congress rebel Vishwanath Singh bag the office of prime minister in 1989. The 1989 National Front – Left Front government was supported by the BJP from the outside.
In 1996 when the United Front government was formed, Chandrababu Naidu played the role of a kingmaker when H D Devegowda and I K Gujral became prime ministers. During this turbulent period, twice Naidu was offered the office of prime minister on a platter, which he declined both times. In Andhra Bhawan, New Delhi, Naidu used to say how he enjoyed dabbling in the “king-making business” but never as a contender for the top job in the country.
The BJP, having barely one per cent of vote share in Andhra, for instance, did well to rope in TDP and Jana Sena. In contrast, I.N.D.I.A bloc remained friendless despite Jagan Mohan Reddy “belonging to the Congress parivar of yesteryears”.
The Congress-Jagan parting is required. Jagan’s father Rajshekhar Reddy was a devout Congress leader and a Gandhi family favourite from the time when Rajiv Gandhi was the PM. When he died in an unfortunate air crash, a majority of Congress MLAs in the then undivided Andhra wanted son Jagan, (a Lok Sabha MP then) to become chief minister of Andhra. This would have been most democratic but the Congress leadership, known to make simple things look complex, crowned K Rossiah. Rahul Gandhi who was AICC general secretary then, reportedly took a ‘democratic’ stand against the dynasty pointing out how the son of an incumbent chief minister taking his place, would set a wrong precedent. It is worth noting that in September 2009, Congress was in power in over a dozen states. 15 years later, instead of conciliation or overtures, the Congress leadership propped up Jagan’s sister, Sharmila as state party chief. The Congress vote percentage in Andhra may have been marginal and enough to unsettle Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party (YSRCP) in Lok Sabha seats. The BJP and NDA were direct beneficiaries.
The cycle in Uttar Pradesh moved fast. Akhilesh Yadav has been the biggest star of 2024. He was pitted against heavy odds including the hype over pran pratishta ceremony at Ram temple in Ayodhya. The defeat of the BJP nominee from Ayodhya says a lot about voters making a clinical distinction between personal faith and political behaviour.
The role of AICC chief, Mallikarjun Kharge needs a special mention. Here, was a Dalit party chief who worked tirelessly talking and negotiating with allies and potential allies. Often he had to swallow his pride and face humiliation as the political leadership remained with Rahul Gandhi who spent considerable time in Yatras. Although Rahul and Sonia gave a lot of respect to Kharge, some AICC office bearers like K C Venugopal and Jairam Ramesh acted without consulting the AICC president.
The BJP on the other hand, made too many tactical errors. the sidelining of regional satraps like Vasundhara Raje Scindia in Rajasthan cost them heavily. Also, so many last-minute changes in candidate selection and polarising electioneering did the damage.
Finally, reliance on Prime Minister Modi is something that would bother the BJP for a long time. The verdict shows that facing Haryana and Maharashtra polls in October this year would give BJP nightmares.
