Fourteen parliamentary seats from Karnataka are part of the 94 constituencies set for polling in the third phase of the Lok Sabha Elections 2024, scheduled for May 7. Karnataka contributes 28 members to the Lok Sabha, with half of its seats already voted upon in the second phase on April 26.

Karnataka holds significant importance for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Congress, and the regional party Janata Dal (Secular).

The BJP won 25 out of the 28 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, marking significant growth for the party in Karnataka, the only state in the South where it saw such success. This makes the political competition in Karnataka important for the BJP. It’s also a key part of the BJP’s “Mission South” strategy because, apart from Telangana and Karnataka, the party hasn’t made much progress in gaining support in the southern states.

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Karnataka holds significant importance for the Congress, particularly following its recent triumph in the state assembly elections where it secured 135 out of 224 seats. The upcoming Lok Sabha elections on May 7 will see voting in 14 seats across northern Karnataka, encompassing constituencies such as Chikkodi, Belgaum, Bagalkot, Bijapur, Gulbarga, Raichur, Bidar, Koppal, Bellary, Haveri, Dharwad, Uttara Kannada, Davangere, and Shimoga.

Struggle for survival for JD(S)

The Janata Dal (S), which suffered significant setbacks in the 2023 state polls, faces heightened stakes due to its existential crisis. The party’s alliance with the BJP holds considerable importance, particularly following its poor performance in the previous assembly elections, where it only managed to secure 19 seats. It seems that the JD (S) has partnered with the BJP in hopes of regaining lost ground in the state.

In the recent third phase of Lok Sabha elections on April 26, the JD(S) contested in three seats as part of its alliance. One of these seats was in Hassan, where JD(S) leader Prajwal Revanna won in 2019 despite facing sexual abuse allegations. Interestingly, Hassan was the only seat JD(S) won in the 2019 elections, although at that time, the party was in alliance with the Congress.

Looking ahead, the JD(S) might face challenges in the upcoming elections in North Karnataka, where it doesn’t have strong support. A political analyst, Sandeep Shastri, suggests that unless there’s solid evidence from the SIT probe regarding the allegations, the BJP might dismiss them as fabricated. He also mentioned that if these allegations had surfaced just before the recent polls, they might have had a bigger impact in Southern Karnataka.

On April 16, during the polling day, former Prime Minister and JD(S) chief HD Deve Gowda expressed assurance that the BJP-JDS alliance would triumph in all 14 seats of the state that participated in the first phase of voting.

The potential ramifications of the allegations against Prajwal Revanna regarding sexual misconduct.

Days before the May 7 polls, the BJP and JD(S), alliance partners, faced a dilemma following the sexual abuse allegations involving Prajwal Revanna, who is also the grandson of former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda. Although JD(S) doesn’t hold much sway in the 14 seats of north Karnataka up for election, the scandal is anticipated to influence the BJP-JD(S) alliance’s prospects due to its impact on the parties’ reputation. Both JD(S) and BJP have distanced themselves from Prajwal, with JD(S) suspending him and BJP stating it won’t support him either.

On May 1, Union Home Minister Amit Shah stated that his party wouldn’t support those who commit crimes against women. Shah criticized Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy CM D K Shivakumar for not taking action against Prajwal before the elections ended in the Vokkaliga belt during the first phase. The Vokkaliga belt includes areas in Old Mysore dominated by the Vokkaliga community, along with coastal seats.

In the upcoming voting on May 7, the Lingayat community holds significant influence in the 14 seats. Lingayats are the largest single community in Karnataka, making up nearly 17% of the state’s 5.3 crore voters. Vokkaligas, another important group, make up about 12% of the electorate.