No one in the country takes Rahul Gandhi seriously, I don’t know why the BJP is taking him so seriously, said Harsimrat Kaur Badal at the NewsX We Women Want Conclave yesterday. The former cabinet minister and Akali Dal leader is making an interesting political point. If the BJP had not reacted to Rahul Gandhi’s comments in Cambridge, would they have got the widespread publicity that they’ve got since then. If the BJP MLA had not filed a case against Rahul in a Surat court, would anyone have remembered the campaign speech he made in Karnataka way back in 2019? Why is the BJP trying so hard to ensure that Rahul Gandhi gets more mileage than he otherwise would have got?
The conspiracy theorists have an idea. They claim that this is to build up Rahul so that the Opposition is lulled into accepting him as the face of their fight against PM Modi in 2024. A Rahul vs Modi fight is exactly what the BJP wants. And before this Parliament session and the Surat court verdict, the Opposition seemed ready to split into two, with Mamata Bannerjee, the TRS and Aam Admi Party all set to form a Third Front. Even Akhilesh and Mayawati seemed inclined towards it.
Then suddenly, there was this targeted attack on Rahul, but the issue at stake was free speech, and Rahul Gandhi became the symbol of the Modi government’s attempts to stifle free speech. This led to the Opposition putting aside their differences for a larger cause and uniting behind Rahul Gandhi. Despite the fact that the Congress had not supported Manish Sisodia and the AAP when the former was arrested, Arvind Kejriwal spoke out in Rahul’s support on the issue of free speech. And the Sutradhars in the Opposition camp sensed a glimmer of hope as the spectre of Opposition unity once again raised it head. But, 2024 is still far off. Will this unity hold till then?
Recently, while speaking to NewsX, Abhishek Manu Singhvi pointed out that the differences within the Opposition are regional or historical, but not ideological. Moreover, from now till the 2024 General Elections, there are no state elections which will see the regional parties pitted against the Congress—save one and that is the Telengana state polls. Barring that, there is more or less a one-on-one fight between the Congress and the BJP, with the regional parties having lesser stakes (such as the JDS in Karnataka). However, Telengana will be a high-pitched battle between the BRS, the BJP and the Congress. Already, the BRS and the Congress do not see eye to eye with the BRS Chief K. Chandrasekhar Rao eyeing a national role. In fact, it is Rao who is the prime mover behind a third front that is equi-distant from both the Congress and the BJP. But on the issue of free speech, he too has thrown his lot with the rest of the Opposition. Plus, don’t forget there is a CBI inquiry against his daughter K. Kavitha on the Delhi liquor scam. That could be another unifying factor for the Opposition, the targeting of Opposition leaders. It was the PM who had commented that the ED and CBI had brought the Opposition together.
Does it then suit the BJP to see a united Opposition led by the Congress? Conversely, a three-way fight would benefit Modi more as then the anti BJP vote would be divided; but the PM is quite adept at crafting a Modi vs the Rest narrative and taking it to the public.
As they say, watch this space as there is still a year to go before the general elections, and that is enough time for the making and the unmaking of many coalitions.
