On the battlefield, often, more than the size of the army and the weaponry, it’s the courage, smart strategy, and the inspiring leadership that carries the day. Bold leaders have, so many times in history, snatched victory out Of the teeth of defeat. In the state elections in West Bengal in May 2021, Mamata Banerjee vindicated this truism. Pitted against, arguably, the most popular Prime Minister of his time, with his enviable oratory and boundless energy, assisted by a clever, methodical and meticulous organizer in Amit Shah, supported by the extensive spadework on the ground by the RSS plus inexhaustible resources and might of the Central govt, undaunted Mamata, campaigned on a wheelchair with her broken leg, invoking the war cry of ‘khela hobe’ inflicted a crushing defeat on the seemingly invincible Modi-Shah duo. She demolished the media myth that she was a spent force incapable of winning for the third time. Her victory was the stuff that folkloric is made of.
The opposition parties, harbouring an ambition to defeat the BJP have a template and a Mascot to emulate. If they sink their differences, swallow their egos, take stock of the ground realities and accept the leadership based on: Jo Jeeta Wohi Sikandar, they stand a chance to contain and counter the BJP.
Naveen Patnaik, the longest-serving Chief Minister of Odisha, serving his 5th consecutive term, is a veteran politician; he hasn’t lost an election. His Biju Janata Dal won 20 out of 21 Parliamentary seats in 2014 when Modi opened his inning in Delhi. But in 2019, this tally came down to 12 seats. He has served as the Minister of Mines in Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s cabinet. He introduced the reservation of 50% seats for women in Panchayat and gave 33% tickets to women for the last Lok Sabha election. His initiative: Mission Shakti has helped several lakhs self-help group women in running their small enterprises. While the economy of the state has grown several folds and per capita income has also increased, several parts of Odisha are still reeling under extreme poverty. The influence of 76-year-old Patnaik, who speaks broken Oriya with text written in Roman script, is largely confined to Odisha.
Though Stalin has created a political space for himself in Tamil Nadu, he can’t step in the big shoes of MGR or Karunanidhi or Jayalalithaa. Jagan Mohan Reddy in Andhra and Chandra Shekhar Rao in Telangana are powerful emerging leaders. All three wield considerable clout and political salience in their respective state but none of them is a national leader.
81-year-old Sharda Pawar, who has served as Maharashtra’s CM thrice and the Minister of defence and agriculture at the Centre is the senior-most politician having been in politics since Indira Gandhi’s time. He has the experience, guile, and cunning of a seasoned politician but has passed his prime. At this juncture in his political career, he can be a kingmaker but not the king himself.
Akhilesh Yadav has come out of the shadows of his father and is emerging as a tough rival to UP CM Adityanath Yogi. Though he gave a big jolt to the BJP leadership by engineering the exit of 3 Cabinet Ministers and a dozen MLAs from the BJP to the SP, his sister in law, Aparna Yadav has dampened the euphoria by jumping on the BJP Bandwagon. Shunning the development agenda, both the BJP & the SP are competing in wooing certain castes in the OBC & Dalit communities. What role Akhilesh can play at the national level in 2024 will depend on how his party fares in the forthcoming State elections. With Ayodhya, Kasi and Mathura becoming election issues, isn’t it a throwback to the old Mandal vs Kamadal contest? The BSP Supremo Mayawati has been uncharacteristically subdued; the threat of prosecution in corruption cases seems taking its toll.
Shackled by the Constitutional provisions for the NCR of Delhi which designate the LG, the Real Administrator and notwithstanding the Home Ministry’s persistent attempts to clip his wings, Arvind Kejriwal, following his own brand of politics, has developed unassailable support in AAP’s core constituencies with his people-centric policies. Besides, he has no qualms about pinching some of BJP’s tag lines to broaden his appeal and underline his Hindu credentials. Kejriwal doesn’t mind ending his speech with Jai Siya Ram. Going a step further, he sent an entire train full of Senior citizens on a free pilgrimage to Ayodhya & with the backdrop of Ram temple in Ayodhya celebrated Diwali as the day to commemorate the return of Lord Ram.
An impactful communicator in his own right, Kejriwal has the ability to feel the pulse of the people at the bottom of the pyramid. Tech-savvy like Modi, he thrives on media blitzkrieg projecting his larger-than-life persona. The AAP might emerge as a force to reckon with in Punjab & Goa. Apart from Mamata, he is the only politician who has defeated the Modi-Shah duo, not once, but twice!
The 136-year-old INC has government in 3 states; it’s a junior partner in 3 others. But, nationally, it still retains over 20% of the vote share. Surprisingly, in national opinion polls for the best leader to lead, Rahul Gandhi comes second to Narendra Modi; far behind him but ahead of all the BJP & opposition leaders. Unfortunately, his strident attacks on PM Modi and energetic election campaigns in the last ten years haven’t helped his party; it got a Zero in state elections in West Bengal and Delhi and a solitary Parliamentary seat in UP in 2019. Evidently, he isn’t a winning horse of the Congress. Even sympathetic commentators ask, “would Gavaskar or Sachin or Virat Kohli have been retained as Captain if he lost 3-4 series in a row? Can the soccer legends: Ronaldo, Messi, or Neymar be retained by their respective clubs if they didn’t score goals?” The message is clear: if you can’t win, be a sport, and make way for someone else! Kohli resigned but he is playing!
Indian democracy needs a strong opposition. But simply dreaming of this won’t help. The opposition parties must first come together and be perceived as a credible alternative to the BJP. Obviously, they need a leader who is mature, experienced, imaginative and inspiring with a transformational vision, smart strategy, and willing to coalesce different viewpoints for a common objective. The Opposition needs an Atal Bihari Vajpayee!
Mamata who trounced the BJP in West Bengal last year had ended 34 years of Communist rule in 2011; she is servings her third term as the CM. She was the first woman CM of West Bengal and the first woman Union Minister of Railways and Mines; she also served as the HRD and youth affairs Minister. She speaks good English, and Hindi besides Bengali. She has the national stature, administrative experience, and indomitable fighting spirit to lead the opposition.
Can’t advocates of strong opposition unite under Mamata’s leadership based on a broad agreement on national issues and a common minimum programme? A holistic, practical, doable, people-centric strategy that attracts the rich, the middle classes as well as the poor of all religions and castes might help. Giant size egos, domineering attitude, exaggerated notions of self-importance, tendency to dismiss contrarian views, and inability to work as a team constitute a recipe for failure.
Mamata will have to dispel the perception of being a minority appeaser and autocratic and intolerant. Above all, she must reach out to Rahul and Kejriwal, seek their support, and offer them significant roles befitting their stature. Will she?
The writer, a former Ambassador, writes on political and strategic affairs. The views expressed are his personal.
